Iran's position that uranium enrichment on its territory remains a non-negotiable red line continues to drive near-certain trader consensus against any agreement to end the program by September 30. Recent U.S.-Iran talks, including the June 2026 memorandum of understanding that froze the status quo pending further negotiations and July technical discussions in Doha, have focused on stockpile disposition, verification, and limited sanctions relief without addressing complete cessation. Ongoing IAEA reporting on Iran's existing 60% enriched material and signs of facility rebuilding after 2025 strikes underscore the absence of diplomatic momentum toward zero enrichment within the narrow timeline. While a sudden shift in negotiating positions or external pressure could theoretically alter the outlook, entrenched procedural and substantive gaps make near-term resolution improbable.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
3% 機率
$62,705 交易量
$62,705 交易量
2026-09-30
是
3% 機率
$62,705 交易量
$62,705 交易量
2026-09-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran's position that uranium enrichment on its territory remains a non-negotiable red line continues to drive near-certain trader consensus against any agreement to end the program by September 30. Recent U.S.-Iran talks, including the June 2026 memorandum of understanding that froze the status quo pending further negotiations and July technical discussions in Doha, have focused on stockpile disposition, verification, and limited sanctions relief without addressing complete cessation. Ongoing IAEA reporting on Iran's existing 60% enriched material and signs of facility rebuilding after 2025 strikes underscore the absence of diplomatic momentum toward zero enrichment within the narrow timeline. While a sudden shift in negotiating positions or external pressure could theoretically alter the outlook, entrenched procedural and substantive gaps make near-term resolution improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ET
交易量
$62,705結束日期
2026-09-30市場開放時間
Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran's position that uranium enrichment on its territory remains a non-negotiable red line continues to drive near-certain trader consensus against any agreement to end the program by September 30. Recent U.S.-Iran talks, including the June 2026 memorandum of understanding that froze the status quo pending further negotiations and July technical discussions in Doha, have focused on stockpile disposition, verification, and limited sanctions relief without addressing complete cessation. Ongoing IAEA reporting on Iran's existing 60% enriched material and signs of facility rebuilding after 2025 strikes underscore the absence of diplomatic momentum toward zero enrichment within the narrow timeline. While a sudden shift in negotiating positions or external pressure could theoretically alter the outlook, entrenched procedural and substantive gaps make near-term resolution improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$62,705結束日期
2026-09-30市場開放時間
Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's position that uranium enrichment on its territory remains a non-negotiable red line continues to drive near-certain trader consensus against any agreement to end the program by September 30. Recent U.S.-Iran talks, including the June 2026 memorandum of understanding that froze the status quo pending further negotiations and July technical discussions in Doha, have focused on stockpile disposition, verification, and limited sanctions relief without addressing complete cessation. Ongoing IAEA reporting on Iran's existing 60% enriched material and signs of facility rebuilding after 2025 strikes underscore the absence of diplomatic momentum toward zero enrichment within the narrow timeline. While a sudden shift in negotiating positions or external pressure could theoretically alter the outlook, entrenched procedural and substantive gaps make near-term resolution improbable.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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