Ongoing regional tensions stemming from the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and subsequent Iranian missile and drone retaliation continue to shape airspace decisions, with Israeli authorities maintaining broad restrictions or temporary closures amid ongoing threats from proxies including Yemen-based groups. Trader consensus reflected in current low single-digit to low-teens probabilities for near-term full closures by late June or July aligns with the absence of new large-scale escalations since March, though recent intercept operations and siren activations have prompted brief suspensions. Key variables include military assessments of incoming threats, coordination with neighboring FIRs, and any diplomatic de-escalation signals that could permit phased reopening of Ben Gurion operations. Scheduled security reviews and potential further exchanges remain the primary near-term catalysts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$19,815,112 交易量
2026-07-31
6月30日
2%
July 15
11%
July 31
18%
$19,815,112 交易量
6月30日
$4,503,447 交易量
2%
July 15
$536,402 交易量
11%
July 31
$644,893 交易量
18%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing regional tensions stemming from the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and subsequent Iranian missile and drone retaliation continue to shape airspace decisions, with Israeli authorities maintaining broad restrictions or temporary closures amid ongoing threats from proxies including Yemen-based groups. Trader consensus reflected in current low single-digit to low-teens probabilities for near-term full closures by late June or July aligns with the absence of new large-scale escalations since March, though recent intercept operations and siren activations have prompted brief suspensions. Key variables include military assessments of incoming threats, coordination with neighboring FIRs, and any diplomatic de-escalation signals that could permit phased reopening of Ben Gurion operations. Scheduled security reviews and potential further exchanges remain the primary near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Jun 15, 2026, 2:44 PM ET
交易量
$19,815,112結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Jun 15, 2026, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing regional tensions stemming from the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and subsequent Iranian missile and drone retaliation continue to shape airspace decisions, with Israeli authorities maintaining broad restrictions or temporary closures amid ongoing threats from proxies including Yemen-based groups. Trader consensus reflected in current low single-digit to low-teens probabilities for near-term full closures by late June or July aligns with the absence of new large-scale escalations since March, though recent intercept operations and siren activations have prompted brief suspensions. Key variables include military assessments of incoming threats, coordination with neighboring FIRs, and any diplomatic de-escalation signals that could permit phased reopening of Ben Gurion operations. Scheduled security reviews and potential further exchanges remain the primary near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$19,815,112結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Jun 15, 2026, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing regional tensions stemming from the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and subsequent Iranian missile and drone retaliation continue to shape airspace decisions, with Israeli authorities maintaining broad restrictions or temporary closures amid ongoing threats from proxies including Yemen-based groups. Trader consensus reflected in current low single-digit to low-teens probabilities for near-term full closures by late June or July aligns with the absence of new large-scale escalations since March, though recent intercept operations and siren activations have prompted brief suspensions. Key variables include military assessments of incoming threats, coordination with neighboring FIRs, and any diplomatic de-escalation signals that could permit phased reopening of Ben Gurion operations. Scheduled security reviews and potential further exchanges remain the primary near-term catalysts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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