The recent closure of the Department of Justice criminal investigation into Jerome Powell over Federal Reserve renovation costs and congressional testimony has anchored trader consensus around a near-certain outcome that no federal charges will be filed by June 30. Prosecutors formally ended the probe on April 24 and shifted oversight to the Fed’s inspector general, following a federal judge’s earlier finding of essentially no evidence of criminal conduct. With Powell’s term winding down and the administration focused on confirming a successor, no new indictments or active federal cases have surfaced in the intervening weeks. While the U.S. attorney has indicated willingness to reopen the matter if fresh facts emerge, the compressed timeline and absence of ongoing grand jury activity make any charging decision before the deadline highly improbable under current conditions.