Iran's leadership transition following Ali Khamenei's death in early 2026, combined with scheduled funeral observances and mourning events projected for early July, creates substantial uncertainty around official X account activity from @khamenei_ir and related handles during the July 7-14 window. Recent patterns show variable posting volumes, including bursts of multiple statements on military and regional issues by Mojtaba Khamenei’s account amid ongoing diplomatic and conflict developments, but no consistent weekly baseline has emerged post-transition. Trader consensus across numerous count buckets reflects this ambiguity, with skin-in-the-game pricing indicating limited conviction on any single range. Key variables that could shift probabilities include formal announcements tied to succession, escalation signals in foreign policy, or procedural pauses during public commemorations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Khamenei # posts July 7 - July 14, 2026?
Khamenei # posts July 7 - July 14, 2026?
<5 69%
50-54 68%
60+ 67%
55-59 66%
最新
最新
2026-07-14
<5
69%
5-9
40%
10-14
39%
15-19
40%
20-24
24%
25-29
40%
30-34
40%
35-39
4%
40-44
3%
45-49
2%
50-54
68%
55-59
66%
60+
67%
<5 69%
50-54 68%
60+ 67%
55-59 66%
最新
最新
2026-07-14
<5
$0 交易量
69%
5-9
$0 交易量
40%
10-14
$0 交易量
39%
15-19
$0 交易量
40%
20-24
$0 交易量
24%
25-29
$0 交易量
40%
30-34
$0 交易量
40%
35-39
$35 交易量
4%
40-44
$32 交易量
3%
45-49
$32 交易量
2%
50-54
$82 交易量
68%
55-59
$82 交易量
66%
60+
$82 交易量
67%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between July 7, 12:00 PM ET and July 14, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Iran's leadership transition following Ali Khamenei's death in early 2026, combined with scheduled funeral observances and mourning events projected for early July, creates substantial uncertainty around official X account activity from @khamenei_ir and related handles during the July 7-14 window. Recent patterns show variable posting volumes, including bursts of multiple statements on military and regional issues by Mojtaba Khamenei’s account amid ongoing diplomatic and conflict developments, but no consistent weekly baseline has emerged post-transition. Trader consensus across numerous count buckets reflects this ambiguity, with skin-in-the-game pricing indicating limited conviction on any single range. Key variables that could shift probabilities include formal announcements tied to succession, escalation signals in foreign policy, or procedural pauses during public commemorations.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between July 7, 12:00 PM ET and July 14, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
市場開放時間： Jul 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
交易量
$344結束日期
2026-07-14市場開放時間
Jul 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between July 7, 12:00 PM ET and July 14, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Iran's leadership transition following Ali Khamenei's death in early 2026, combined with scheduled funeral observances and mourning events projected for early July, creates substantial uncertainty around official X account activity from @khamenei_ir and related handles during the July 7-14 window. Recent patterns show variable posting volumes, including bursts of multiple statements on military and regional issues by Mojtaba Khamenei’s account amid ongoing diplomatic and conflict developments, but no consistent weekly baseline has emerged post-transition. Trader consensus across numerous count buckets reflects this ambiguity, with skin-in-the-game pricing indicating limited conviction on any single range. Key variables that could shift probabilities include formal announcements tied to succession, escalation signals in foreign policy, or procedural pauses during public commemorations.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between July 7, 12:00 PM ET and July 14, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
交易量
$344結束日期
2026-07-14市場開放時間
Jul 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Iran's leadership transition following Ali Khamenei's death in early 2026, combined with scheduled funeral observances and mourning events projected for early July, creates substantial uncertainty around official X account activity from @khamenei_ir and related handles during the July 7-14 window. Recent patterns show variable posting volumes, including bursts of multiple statements on military and regional issues by Mojtaba Khamenei’s account amid ongoing diplomatic and conflict developments, but no consistent weekly baseline has emerged post-transition. Trader consensus across numerous count buckets reflects this ambiguity, with skin-in-the-game pricing indicating limited conviction on any single range. Key variables that could shift probabilities include formal announcements tied to succession, escalation signals in foreign policy, or procedural pauses during public commemorations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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