Traders assign overwhelming probability to a 24°C low in Chengdu on August 21, reflecting consensus from regional forecast models and observational data showing stable subtropical high pressure with minimal overnight cooling expected. Historical August baselines for the Sichuan basin place typical minimums near 23–25°C under similar synoptic patterns, and current surface observations plus ensemble guidance align closely with this range. The narrow implied-probability spread around 24°C indicates high confidence in the absence of anomalous cold-air advection or heavy rainfall that could depress temperatures further. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted frontal passage or rapid radiative cooling under clear skies, though model agreement and proximity to the resolution window limit such upside for lower outcomes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月21日成都最低溫度？
8月21日成都最低溫度？
24°C 96%
18°C 8%
20°C 7%
23°C 4%
最新
最新
2026-08-21
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
8%
19°C
<1%
20°C
7%
21°C
2%
22°C
2%
23°C
4%
24°C
96%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
24°C 96%
18°C 8%
20°C 7%
23°C 4%
最新
最新
2026-08-21
17°C or below
$153 交易量
<1%
18°C
$61 交易量
8%
19°C
$111 交易量
<1%
20°C
$92 交易量
7%
21°C
$92 交易量
2%
22°C
$92 交易量
2%
23°C
$30 交易量
4%
24°C
$176 交易量
96%
25°C
$25 交易量
<1%
26°C
$95 交易量
<1%
27°C or higher
$95 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign overwhelming probability to a 24°C low in Chengdu on August 21, reflecting consensus from regional forecast models and observational data showing stable subtropical high pressure with minimal overnight cooling expected. Historical August baselines for the Sichuan basin place typical minimums near 23–25°C under similar synoptic patterns, and current surface observations plus ensemble guidance align closely with this range. The narrow implied-probability spread around 24°C indicates high confidence in the absence of anomalous cold-air advection or heavy rainfall that could depress temperatures further. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted frontal passage or rapid radiative cooling under clear skies, though model agreement and proximity to the resolution window limit such upside for lower outcomes.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 20, 2026, 1:29 PM ET
交易量
$1,021結束日期
2026-08-21市場開放時間
Aug 20, 2026, 1:29 PM ETThis market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign overwhelming probability to a 24°C low in Chengdu on August 21, reflecting consensus from regional forecast models and observational data showing stable subtropical high pressure with minimal overnight cooling expected. Historical August baselines for the Sichuan basin place typical minimums near 23–25°C under similar synoptic patterns, and current surface observations plus ensemble guidance align closely with this range. The narrow implied-probability spread around 24°C indicates high confidence in the absence of anomalous cold-air advection or heavy rainfall that could depress temperatures further. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted frontal passage or rapid radiative cooling under clear skies, though model agreement and proximity to the resolution window limit such upside for lower outcomes.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,021結束日期
2026-08-21市場開放時間
Aug 20, 2026, 1:29 PM ETTraders assign overwhelming probability to a 24°C low in Chengdu on August 21, reflecting consensus from regional forecast models and observational data showing stable subtropical high pressure with minimal overnight cooling expected. Historical August baselines for the Sichuan basin place typical minimums near 23–25°C under similar synoptic patterns, and current surface observations plus ensemble guidance align closely with this range. The narrow implied-probability spread around 24°C indicates high confidence in the absence of anomalous cold-air advection or heavy rainfall that could depress temperatures further. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted frontal passage or rapid radiative cooling under clear skies, though model agreement and proximity to the resolution window limit such upside for lower outcomes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions