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Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?

icon for Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?

Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?

5月 15

5月 15

25°C 97.2%

24°C 80.0%

19°C 1.0%

21°C 1.0%

Polymarket

$64,068 交易量

25°C 97.2%

24°C 80.0%

19°C 1.0%

21°C 1.0%

Polymarket

$64,068 交易量

18°C或以下

$2,543 交易量

1%

19°C

$2,325 交易量

1%

20°C

$2,408 交易量

1%

21°C

$2,288 交易量

1%

22°C

$3,899 交易量

1%

23°C

$5,213 交易量

<1%

24°C

$12,297 交易量

80%

25°C

$8,751 交易量

97%

26°C

$12,015 交易量

42%

27°C

$8,321 交易量

-

28°C or higher

$4,112 交易量

1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong Observatory data recorded an overnight minimum of exactly 25°C on May 15, 2026, anchoring trader consensus at 97.3% implied probability for that precise outcome. In Hong Kong’s subtropical spring climate, typical May lows hover near 24–25°C under stable southerly flow and moderate humidity, with minimal nocturnal cooling once the northeast monsoon retreats. Recent model consensus from regional forecasts showed little diurnal variation or frontal passage that would push the reading below 24°C or above 26°C. While official verification locks resolution, an unexpected instrumentation adjustment or localized urban heat-island effect could still alter the final figure, though such revisions remain statistically rare for this well-monitored station.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$64,068
結束日期
2026-05-15
市場開放時間
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

已提議結果: 是

爭議期

最終

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong Observatory data recorded an overnight minimum of exactly 25°C on May 15, 2026, anchoring trader consensus at 97.3% implied probability for that precise outcome. In Hong Kong’s subtropical spring climate, typical May lows hover near 24–25°C under stable southerly flow and moderate humidity, with minimal nocturnal cooling once the northeast monsoon retreats. Recent model consensus from regional forecasts showed little diurnal variation or frontal passage that would push the reading below 24°C or above 26°C. While official verification locks resolution, an unexpected instrumentation adjustment or localized urban heat-island effect could still alter the final figure, though such revisions remain statistically rare for this well-monitored station.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$64,068
結束日期
2026-05-15
市場開放時間
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

已提議結果: 是

爭議期

最終

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "25°C" at 97%, followed by "24°C" at 80%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 97¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 97% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?" has generated $64.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on May 11, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?" is "25°C" at 97%, meaning the market assigns a 97% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "24°C" at 80%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.