Recent AEMET guidance and ensemble model runs for Madrid on August 23 point to overnight radiative cooling under clear, high-pressure conditions, with minimum temperatures most likely settling near 18–20 °C. Late-August climatology for the Retiro station shows average lows of 18–19 °C, and current steering patterns favor dry, stable air that enhances nocturnal heat loss without significant cloud cover or advection of warmer air. Implied probabilities cluster around 17–19 °C outcomes because these align closely with the consensus forecast range, while probabilities for 20 °C or higher reflect residual uncertainty in model spread and potential for slight warming if winds increase. Updated AEMET briefings and 48-hour model runs scheduled before resolution will determine final positioning.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月23日馬德裏最低氣溫？
8月23日馬德裏最低氣溫？
27°C or higher 51%
25°C 49%
17°C or below 42%
19°C 30%
最新
最新
2026-08-23
17°C or below
42%
18°C
29%
19°C
30%
20°C
26%
21°C
25%
22°C
26%
23°C
26%
24°C
26%
25°C
49%
26°C
8%
27°C or higher
51%
27°C or higher 51%
25°C 49%
17°C or below 42%
19°C 30%
最新
最新
2026-08-23
17°C or below
$0 交易量
42%
18°C
$0 交易量
29%
19°C
$0 交易量
30%
20°C
$0 交易量
26%
21°C
$0 交易量
25%
22°C
$0 交易量
26%
23°C
$0 交易量
26%
24°C
$20 交易量
26%
25°C
$5 交易量
49%
26°C
$5 交易量
8%
27°C or higher
$5 交易量
51%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent AEMET guidance and ensemble model runs for Madrid on August 23 point to overnight radiative cooling under clear, high-pressure conditions, with minimum temperatures most likely settling near 18–20 °C. Late-August climatology for the Retiro station shows average lows of 18–19 °C, and current steering patterns favor dry, stable air that enhances nocturnal heat loss without significant cloud cover or advection of warmer air. Implied probabilities cluster around 17–19 °C outcomes because these align closely with the consensus forecast range, while probabilities for 20 °C or higher reflect residual uncertainty in model spread and potential for slight warming if winds increase. Updated AEMET briefings and 48-hour model runs scheduled before resolution will determine final positioning.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$35結束日期
2026-08-23市場開放時間
Aug 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent AEMET guidance and ensemble model runs for Madrid on August 23 point to overnight radiative cooling under clear, high-pressure conditions, with minimum temperatures most likely settling near 18–20 °C. Late-August climatology for the Retiro station shows average lows of 18–19 °C, and current steering patterns favor dry, stable air that enhances nocturnal heat loss without significant cloud cover or advection of warmer air. Implied probabilities cluster around 17–19 °C outcomes because these align closely with the consensus forecast range, while probabilities for 20 °C or higher reflect residual uncertainty in model spread and potential for slight warming if winds increase. Updated AEMET briefings and 48-hour model runs scheduled before resolution will determine final positioning.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$35結束日期
2026-08-23市場開放時間
Aug 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETRecent AEMET guidance and ensemble model runs for Madrid on August 23 point to overnight radiative cooling under clear, high-pressure conditions, with minimum temperatures most likely settling near 18–20 °C. Late-August climatology for the Retiro station shows average lows of 18–19 °C, and current steering patterns favor dry, stable air that enhances nocturnal heat loss without significant cloud cover or advection of warmer air. Implied probabilities cluster around 17–19 °C outcomes because these align closely with the consensus forecast range, while probabilities for 20 °C or higher reflect residual uncertainty in model spread and potential for slight warming if winds increase. Updated AEMET briefings and 48-hour model runs scheduled before resolution will determine final positioning.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions