Recent forecast consensus from models including GFS points to a Tokyo minimum near 20°C on September 17, driven by overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies following morning showers and steady northerly winds of 10–15 mph. These conditions limit further temperature drops below 19°C while preventing warmer readings, consistent with seasonal September baselines around 19–20°C. Official JMA observations and updated model runs through midday have reinforced this range, with limited divergence among ensembles. Traders assign over 85% implied probability to 20°C as resolution nears, reflecting the narrow expected window between 19–21°C.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月17日東京最低溫度？
9月17日東京最低溫度？
20°C 64%
19°C 24%
18°C 5%
17°C 1.3%
最新
最新
2026-09-17
15°C或以下
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
5%
19°C
27%
20°C
64%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C或以上
<1%
20°C 64%
19°C 24%
18°C 5%
17°C 1.3%
最新
最新
2026-09-17
15°C或以下
$167 交易量
<1%
16°C
$187 交易量
<1%
17°C
$359 交易量
1%
18°C
$523 交易量
5%
19°C
$1,688 交易量
27%
20°C
$1,281 交易量
64%
21°C
$333 交易量
<1%
22°C
$31 交易量
<1%
23°C
$53 交易量
<1%
24°C
$53 交易量
<1%
25°C或以上
$53 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from models including GFS points to a Tokyo minimum near 20°C on September 17, driven by overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies following morning showers and steady northerly winds of 10–15 mph. These conditions limit further temperature drops below 19°C while preventing warmer readings, consistent with seasonal September baselines around 19–20°C. Official JMA observations and updated model runs through midday have reinforced this range, with limited divergence among ensembles. Traders assign over 85% implied probability to 20°C as resolution nears, reflecting the narrow expected window between 19–21°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 15, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
交易量
$4,727結束日期
2026-09-17市場開放時間
Sep 15, 2026, 12:29 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from models including GFS points to a Tokyo minimum near 20°C on September 17, driven by overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies following morning showers and steady northerly winds of 10–15 mph. These conditions limit further temperature drops below 19°C while preventing warmer readings, consistent with seasonal September baselines around 19–20°C. Official JMA observations and updated model runs through midday have reinforced this range, with limited divergence among ensembles. Traders assign over 85% implied probability to 20°C as resolution nears, reflecting the narrow expected window between 19–21°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$4,727結束日期
2026-09-17市場開放時間
Sep 15, 2026, 12:29 AM ETRecent forecast consensus from models including GFS points to a Tokyo minimum near 20°C on September 17, driven by overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies following morning showers and steady northerly winds of 10–15 mph. These conditions limit further temperature drops below 19°C while preventing warmer readings, consistent with seasonal September baselines around 19–20°C. Official JMA observations and updated model runs through midday have reinforced this range, with limited divergence among ensembles. Traders assign over 85% implied probability to 20°C as resolution nears, reflecting the narrow expected window between 19–21°C.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions