**Current forecasts from major models indicate a minimum temperature of 10°C in Warsaw on September 16, supporting the market's strong 97.5% implied probability for that outcome.** Overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, with light southerly winds shifting northwest, has allowed temperatures to approach or reach this level after daytime highs near 24–25°C. This aligns with climatological expectations for mid-September, when average lows hover around 10–12°C. The consensus reflects aggregated trader assessment of official station data and model consensus, with limited divergence among runs. A realistic shift away from 10°C would require unexpected increases in cloud cover, stronger winds, or measurement variations at the primary Warsaw station that push the recorded minimum to 9°C or 11°C before midnight.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月16日華沙的最低溫度？
9月16日華沙的最低溫度？
10°C 100.0%
8°C 7.5%
9°C 1.0%
6°C或以下 <1%
$1,207 交易量
$1,207 交易量
2026-09-16
6°C或以下
否
7°C
否
8°C
否
9°C
否
10°C
是
11°C
否
12°C
否
13°C
否
14°C
否
15°C
否
16°C或以上
否
10°C 100.0%
8°C 7.5%
9°C 1.0%
6°C或以下 <1%
$1,207 交易量
$1,207 交易量
2026-09-16
6°C或以下
$16 交易量
否
7°C
$230 交易量
否
8°C
$343 交易量
否
9°C
$37 交易量
否
10°C
$60 交易量
是
11°C
$136 交易量
否
12°C
$231 交易量
否
13°C
$46 交易量
否
14°C
$72 交易量
否
15°C
$21 交易量
否
16°C或以上
$16 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from major models indicate a minimum temperature of 10°C in Warsaw on September 16, supporting the market's strong 97.5% implied probability for that outcome.** Overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, with light southerly winds shifting northwest, has allowed temperatures to approach or reach this level after daytime highs near 24–25°C. This aligns with climatological expectations for mid-September, when average lows hover around 10–12°C. The consensus reflects aggregated trader assessment of official station data and model consensus, with limited divergence among runs. A realistic shift away from 10°C would require unexpected increases in cloud cover, stronger winds, or measurement variations at the primary Warsaw station that push the recorded minimum to 9°C or 11°C before midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$1,207結束日期
2026-09-16市場開放時間
Sep 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from major models indicate a minimum temperature of 10°C in Warsaw on September 16, supporting the market's strong 97.5% implied probability for that outcome.** Overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, with light southerly winds shifting northwest, has allowed temperatures to approach or reach this level after daytime highs near 24–25°C. This aligns with climatological expectations for mid-September, when average lows hover around 10–12°C. The consensus reflects aggregated trader assessment of official station data and model consensus, with limited divergence among runs. A realistic shift away from 10°C would require unexpected increases in cloud cover, stronger winds, or measurement variations at the primary Warsaw station that push the recorded minimum to 9°C or 11°C before midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,207結束日期
2026-09-16市場開放時間
Sep 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
**Current forecasts from major models indicate a minimum temperature of 10°C in Warsaw on September 16, supporting the market's strong 97.5% implied probability for that outcome.** Overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, with light southerly winds shifting northwest, has allowed temperatures to approach or reach this level after daytime highs near 24–25°C. This aligns with climatological expectations for mid-September, when average lows hover around 10–12°C. The consensus reflects aggregated trader assessment of official station data and model consensus, with limited divergence among runs. A realistic shift away from 10°C would require unexpected increases in cloud cover, stronger winds, or measurement variations at the primary Warsaw station that push the recorded minimum to 9°C or 11°C before midnight.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions