**Current forecasts from MetService and multiple international models indicate a minimum temperature of 10°C for Wellington on September 15, 2026, aligning with the market's near-certain 99.5% implied probability on that exact outcome.** Overnight conditions feature northerly to northwesterly winds of 20–25 mph under partly cloudy skies, with dew points near 10°C limiting further cooling. This matches the typical early-spring pattern, where September average lows hover around 9°C but recent model runs have stabilized near 10°C amid stable high pressure and mild advection. The strong consensus reflects real-time observational data showing daytime highs of 12–13°C and no incoming cold fronts strong enough to push readings lower before midnight. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted southerly change or localized radiational cooling under clearer skies, but current model agreement and proximity to resolution make such shifts unlikely.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月15日惠靈頓的最低溫度？
9月15日惠靈頓的最低溫度？
10°C 100.0%
5°C或以下 <1%
6°C <1%
7°C <1%
$1,952 交易量
$1,952 交易量
2026-09-15
5°C或以下
否
6°C
否
7°C
否
8°C
否
9°C
否
10°C
是
11°C
否
12°C
否
13°C
否
14°C
否
15°C或以上
否
10°C 100.0%
5°C或以下 <1%
6°C <1%
7°C <1%
$1,952 交易量
$1,952 交易量
2026-09-15
5°C或以下
$86 交易量
否
6°C
$146 交易量
否
7°C
$274 交易量
否
8°C
$140 交易量
否
9°C
$94 交易量
否
10°C
$229 交易量
是
11°C
$937 交易量
否
12°C
$16 交易量
否
13°C
$10 交易量
否
14°C
$10 交易量
否
15°C或以上
$10 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from MetService and multiple international models indicate a minimum temperature of 10°C for Wellington on September 15, 2026, aligning with the market's near-certain 99.5% implied probability on that exact outcome.**
Overnight conditions feature northerly to northwesterly winds of 20–25 mph under partly cloudy skies, with dew points near 10°C limiting further cooling. This matches the typical early-spring pattern, where September average lows hover around 9°C but recent model runs have stabilized near 10°C amid stable high pressure and mild advection.
The strong consensus reflects real-time observational data showing daytime highs of 12–13°C and no incoming cold fronts strong enough to push readings lower before midnight. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted southerly change or localized radiational cooling under clearer skies, but current model agreement and proximity to resolution make such shifts unlikely.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ET
交易量
$1,952結束日期
2026-09-15市場開放時間
Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from MetService and multiple international models indicate a minimum temperature of 10°C for Wellington on September 15, 2026, aligning with the market's near-certain 99.5% implied probability on that exact outcome.**
Overnight conditions feature northerly to northwesterly winds of 20–25 mph under partly cloudy skies, with dew points near 10°C limiting further cooling. This matches the typical early-spring pattern, where September average lows hover around 9°C but recent model runs have stabilized near 10°C amid stable high pressure and mild advection.
The strong consensus reflects real-time observational data showing daytime highs of 12–13°C and no incoming cold fronts strong enough to push readings lower before midnight. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted southerly change or localized radiational cooling under clearer skies, but current model agreement and proximity to resolution make such shifts unlikely.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,952結束日期
2026-09-15市場開放時間
Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
**Current forecasts from MetService and multiple international models indicate a minimum temperature of 10°C for Wellington on September 15, 2026, aligning with the market's near-certain 99.5% implied probability on that exact outcome.** Overnight conditions feature northerly to northwesterly winds of 20–25 mph under partly cloudy skies, with dew points near 10°C limiting further cooling. This matches the typical early-spring pattern, where September average lows hover around 9°C but recent model runs have stabilized near 10°C amid stable high pressure and mild advection. The strong consensus reflects real-time observational data showing daytime highs of 12–13°C and no incoming cold fronts strong enough to push readings lower before midnight. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted southerly change or localized radiational cooling under clearer skies, but current model agreement and proximity to resolution make such shifts unlikely.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions