Minnesota House Speaker Lisa Demuth leads the Republican primary for governor because of her February statewide caucus straw poll victory and her record of forging legislative compromises in a narrowly divided chamber. Traders assign her roughly two-thirds probability ahead of the August primary, viewing her institutional role and party infrastructure as decisive advantages in a fragmented field. Kendall Qualls draws residual support from earlier straw polls while Mike Lindell relies on name recognition from his business background, yet both trail because they lack comparable legislative records or recent convention momentum. A series of candidate withdrawals has further narrowed attention to the top three, leaving lower-polling entrants with minimal implied odds absent major shifts before primary day.