Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s official account maintains a steady cadence of policy updates, affordability messaging, and constituent outreach that has produced 20-39 posts in recent comparable weeks. Traders price this range at 90.8 percent because no major crisis, legislative vote, or high-profile event is scheduled for May 15-22 that would trigger a sharp increase or drop in output. Mamdani’s approach treats the platform as routine governing infrastructure rather than a reactive channel, keeping weekly totals within the observed band. A sudden city emergency or coordinated national news cycle could push totals higher, while an unusually quiet stretch of administrative work remains the only realistic path to fewer than 20 posts.