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政治·主要

俄勒岡州民主黨參議院初選獲勝者

icon for 俄勒岡州民主黨參議院初選獲勝者
政治·主要

俄勒岡州民主黨參議院初選獲勝者

$18,361 交易量

Polymarket

$18,361 交易量

傑夫·默克利

$11,919 交易量

99%

雅各布·賴恩

$6,442 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Oregon. If no 2026 Oregon Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oregon Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Incumbent U.S. Senator Jeff Merkley commands 99.4% trader consensus to win Oregon's Democratic Senate primary on May 19, reflecting his entrenched incumbency since 2008, comfortable 2020 re-election with 57% of the vote, and overwhelming party establishment support in a reliably Democratic state. Minimal opposition from low-profile challenger Jacob Ryan, who lacks polling, fundraising, or endorsements, has failed to generate traction amid ballots mailed April 29 and no recent developments like scandals or voter shifts. Historical precedents show Senate incumbents winning primaries over 95% of the time, cementing Merkley's position. An upset would require unprecedented late-breaking scandal, health issue, or disqualification in the final days.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Oregon.

If no 2026 Oregon Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oregon Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
交易量
$18,361
結束日期
2026-05-19
市場開放時間
Nov 26, 2025, 5:20 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Oregon. If no 2026 Oregon Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oregon Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Oregon. If no 2026 Oregon Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oregon Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Incumbent U.S. Senator Jeff Merkley commands 99.4% trader consensus to win Oregon's Democratic Senate primary on May 19, reflecting his entrenched incumbency since 2008, comfortable 2020 re-election with 57% of the vote, and overwhelming party establishment support in a reliably Democratic state. Minimal opposition from low-profile challenger Jacob Ryan, who lacks polling, fundraising, or endorsements, has failed to generate traction amid ballots mailed April 29 and no recent developments like scandals or voter shifts. Historical precedents show Senate incumbents winning primaries over 95% of the time, cementing Merkley's position. An upset would require unprecedented late-breaking scandal, health issue, or disqualification in the final days.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Oregon.

If no 2026 Oregon Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oregon Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
交易量
$18,361
結束日期
2026-05-19
市場開放時間
Nov 26, 2025, 5:20 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Oregon. If no 2026 Oregon Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oregon Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"俄勒岡州民主黨參議院初選獲勝者" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "傑夫·默克利" at 99%, followed by "雅各布·賴恩" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 99¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "俄勒岡州民主黨參議院初選獲勝者" has generated $18.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 26, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "俄勒岡州民主黨參議院初選獲勝者," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "俄勒岡州民主黨參議院初選獲勝者" is "傑夫·默克利" at 99%, meaning the market assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "雅各布·賴恩" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "俄勒岡州民主黨參議院初選獲勝者" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.