Traders see probabilities clustered tightly between 150–300 mm for Seoul’s August total because roughly half the month has passed with typical early-August monsoon remnants and mid-month showers already contributing 100–150 mm, leaving the outcome highly sensitive to late-month variability. With the East Asian monsoon (Jangma) largely concluded, remaining rainfall depends on scattered convective thunderstorms driven by high humidity and daytime heating rather than organized fronts, plus any late-season typhoon tracks that could add 50–150 mm in a single event. Official Korea Meteorological Administration outlooks show only modest probabilities of precipitation through late August, supporting the near-even odds across the central bins while underscoring model uncertainty in tropical moisture transport.