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選舉·西班牙

選舉後的安達盧西亞總統？

icon for 選舉後的安達盧西亞總統？
選舉·西班牙

選舉後的安達盧西亞總統？

Juanma Moreno 98.4%

María Jesús Montero 1.2%

Manuel Gavira <1%

Antonio Maíllo <1%

Polymarket

$23,017 交易量

Juanma Moreno 98.4%

María Jesús Montero 1.2%

Manuel Gavira <1%

Antonio Maíllo <1%

Polymarket

$23,017 交易量

icon for Juanma Moreno

Juanma Moreno

$9,001 交易量

98%

icon for María Jesús Montero

María Jesús Montero

$4,126 交易量

1%

icon for Manuel Gavira

Manuel Gavira

$3,844 交易量

1%

icon for Antonio Maíllo

Antonio Maíllo

$2,966 交易量

<1%

icon for José Ignacio García

José Ignacio García

$3,081 交易量

<1%

Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026. The President of Andalusia will then be elected by the Parliament of Andalusia elected in this election. This market will resolve according to the first individual elected by the Parliament of Andalusia to serve as President of Andalusia following this election. Interim, temporary, or caretaker Presidents will not count. If no such President has been elected by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Andalusia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors incumbent Juanma Moreno of the PP to secure re-election as Andalusia's president following the May 17 regional parliamentary vote, reflecting consistent pre-election polls like the May 5 CIS survey showing his party nearing an absolute majority with around 44-56 seats in the 109-seat chamber, while PSOE candidate María Jesús Montero trails far behind at 26% amid historic lows. Moreno's commanding position stems from high personal approval ratings, stable governance as the region's first non-PSOE leader since 2022, and opposition fragmentation—Vox's Manuel Gavira at 10%, left-wing Antonio Maíllo and José Ignacio García negligible—reinforced by strong performances in recent Canal Sur debates. Barring a late scandal, low turnout, or unforeseen national events disrupting voter mobilization, his path to outright majority and investiture remains clear.

Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026. The President of Andalusia will then be elected by the Parliament of Andalusia elected in this election.

This market will resolve according to the first individual elected by the Parliament of Andalusia to serve as President of Andalusia following this election.

Interim, temporary, or caretaker Presidents will not count.

If no such President has been elected by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Andalusia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$23,017
結束日期
2026-05-17
市場開放時間
Apr 16, 2026, 7:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026. The President of Andalusia will then be elected by the Parliament of Andalusia elected in this election. This market will resolve according to the first individual elected by the Parliament of Andalusia to serve as President of Andalusia following this election. Interim, temporary, or caretaker Presidents will not count. If no such President has been elected by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Andalusia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026. The President of Andalusia will then be elected by the Parliament of Andalusia elected in this election. This market will resolve according to the first individual elected by the Parliament of Andalusia to serve as President of Andalusia following this election. Interim, temporary, or caretaker Presidents will not count. If no such President has been elected by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Andalusia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors incumbent Juanma Moreno of the PP to secure re-election as Andalusia's president following the May 17 regional parliamentary vote, reflecting consistent pre-election polls like the May 5 CIS survey showing his party nearing an absolute majority with around 44-56 seats in the 109-seat chamber, while PSOE candidate María Jesús Montero trails far behind at 26% amid historic lows. Moreno's commanding position stems from high personal approval ratings, stable governance as the region's first non-PSOE leader since 2022, and opposition fragmentation—Vox's Manuel Gavira at 10%, left-wing Antonio Maíllo and José Ignacio García negligible—reinforced by strong performances in recent Canal Sur debates. Barring a late scandal, low turnout, or unforeseen national events disrupting voter mobilization, his path to outright majority and investiture remains clear.

Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026. The President of Andalusia will then be elected by the Parliament of Andalusia elected in this election.

This market will resolve according to the first individual elected by the Parliament of Andalusia to serve as President of Andalusia following this election.

Interim, temporary, or caretaker Presidents will not count.

If no such President has been elected by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Andalusia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$23,017
結束日期
2026-05-17
市場開放時間
Apr 16, 2026, 7:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026. The President of Andalusia will then be elected by the Parliament of Andalusia elected in this election. This market will resolve according to the first individual elected by the Parliament of Andalusia to serve as President of Andalusia following this election. Interim, temporary, or caretaker Presidents will not count. If no such President has been elected by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Andalusia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"選舉後的安達盧西亞總統？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Juanma Moreno" at 98%, followed by "María Jesús Montero" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 98¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "選舉後的安達盧西亞總統？" has generated $23K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 16, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "選舉後的安達盧西亞總統？," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "選舉後的安達盧西亞總統？" is "Juanma Moreno" at 98%, meaning the market assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "María Jesús Montero" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "選舉後的安達盧西亞總統？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.