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世界·世界選舉

魁北克省大選獲勝者

icon for 魁北克省大選獲勝者
世界·世界選舉

魁北克省大選獲勝者

魁北克黨 59%

魁北克自由黨 30%

魁北克未來聯盟（CAQ） 10%

魁北克保守黨 <1%

Polymarket

$505,114 交易量

魁北克黨 59%

魁北克自由黨 30%

魁北克未來聯盟（CAQ） 10%

魁北克保守黨 <1%

Polymarket

$505,114 交易量

icon for 魁北克黨

魁北克黨

$52,361 交易量

59%

icon for 魁北克自由黨

魁北克自由黨

$56,150 交易量

30%

icon for 魁北克未來聯盟（CAQ）

魁北克未來聯盟（CAQ）

$59,486 交易量

10%

icon for 魁北克保守黨

魁北克保守黨

$164,004 交易量

1%

icon for 魁北克綠黨

魁北克綠黨

$114,822 交易量

<1%

icon for 魁團

魁團

$58,291 交易量

<1%

Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling shows the Parti Québécois and Quebec Liberal Party locked in a tight race for voter support ahead of the October general election, with each capturing around 30 percent among decided respondents in the latest Synopsis and Pallas Data surveys. Traders assign the PQ a leading 58.5 percent implied probability of forming the next government, reflecting its consistent edge among francophone voters and stronger positioning to secure the seats needed for a majority under Quebec’s first-past-the-post system. The CAQ has posted modest gains to the low-to-mid teens under new leader Christine Fréchette following its leadership vote, yet remains well behind in projected seat totals. Smaller parties including the Conservatives, Greens, and Québec solidaire register negligible chances in current pricing, consistent with their limited riding-level viability at this stage.

Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.

If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
交易量
$505,114
結束日期
2026-10-05
市場開放時間
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling shows the Parti Québécois and Quebec Liberal Party locked in a tight race for voter support ahead of the October general election, with each capturing around 30 percent among decided respondents in the latest Synopsis and Pallas Data surveys. Traders assign the PQ a leading 58.5 percent implied probability of forming the next government, reflecting its consistent edge among francophone voters and stronger positioning to secure the seats needed for a majority under Quebec’s first-past-the-post system. The CAQ has posted modest gains to the low-to-mid teens under new leader Christine Fréchette following its leadership vote, yet remains well behind in projected seat totals. Smaller parties including the Conservatives, Greens, and Québec solidaire register negligible chances in current pricing, consistent with their limited riding-level viability at this stage.

Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.

If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
交易量
$505,114
結束日期
2026-10-05
市場開放時間
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"魁北克省大選獲勝者" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "魁北克黨" at 59%, followed by "魁北克自由黨" at 30%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 59¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 59% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "魁北克省大選獲勝者" has generated $505.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 2, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "魁北克省大選獲勝者," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "魁北克省大選獲勝者" is "魁北克黨" at 59%, meaning the market assigns a 59% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "魁北克自由黨" at 30%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "魁北克省大選獲勝者" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.