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地緣政治·俄羅斯

俄羅斯在…前對波蘭發動襲擊？

icon for 俄羅斯在…前對波蘭發動襲擊？
地緣政治·俄羅斯

俄羅斯在…前對波蘭發動襲擊？

$1,926,585 交易量

2026-06-30
Polymarket

$1,926,585 交易量

Polymarket

2026年6月30日

$77,916 交易量

4%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Polish soil or any official Polish embassy or consulate between September 9, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact Polish ground territory or any official Polish embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Polish soil is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Polish territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Polish soil or any official Polish embassy or consulate between September 9, 9 PM ET and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact Polish ground territory or any official Polish embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Polish soil is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Polish territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Polish soil or any official Polish embassy or consulate between September 9, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact Polish ground territory or any official Polish embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Polish soil is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Polish territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.No confirmed Russian military strike has targeted Polish territory, with trader sentiment anchored by NATO's deterrence under Article 5 amid the ongoing Ukraine war. On May 13, Poland intercepted Russian aircraft over the Baltic Sea during Moscow's attacks on Ukraine, confirming no airspace violation occurred. Persistent tensions arise from frequent spillover incidents, including March airspace breaches by Russian or Belarusian assets and April warnings from Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk of a potential NATO attack within months. NATO allies routinely scramble jets for Russian missile barrages near borders, underscoring hybrid warfare risks like drone incursions. Upcoming Ukraine peace talks or frontline escalations could shift probabilities, though direct strikes remain deterred by alliance commitments.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Polish soil or any official Polish embassy or consulate between September 9, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact Polish ground territory or any official Polish embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Polish soil is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Polish territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,926,585
結束日期
2025-12-31
市場開放時間
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Polish soil or any official Polish embassy or consulate between September 9, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact Polish ground territory or any official Polish embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Polish soil is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Polish territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Polish soil or any official Polish embassy or consulate between September 9, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact Polish ground territory or any official Polish embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Polish soil is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Polish territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Polish soil or any official Polish embassy or consulate between September 9, 9 PM ET and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact Polish ground territory or any official Polish embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Polish soil is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Polish territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Polish soil or any official Polish embassy or consulate between September 9, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact Polish ground territory or any official Polish embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Polish soil is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Polish territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.No confirmed Russian military strike has targeted Polish territory, with trader sentiment anchored by NATO's deterrence under Article 5 amid the ongoing Ukraine war. On May 13, Poland intercepted Russian aircraft over the Baltic Sea during Moscow's attacks on Ukraine, confirming no airspace violation occurred. Persistent tensions arise from frequent spillover incidents, including March airspace breaches by Russian or Belarusian assets and April warnings from Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk of a potential NATO attack within months. NATO allies routinely scramble jets for Russian missile barrages near borders, underscoring hybrid warfare risks like drone incursions. Upcoming Ukraine peace talks or frontline escalations could shift probabilities, though direct strikes remain deterred by alliance commitments.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Polish soil or any official Polish embassy or consulate between September 9, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact Polish ground territory or any official Polish embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Polish soil is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Polish territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,926,585
結束日期
2025-12-31
市場開放時間
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Polish soil or any official Polish embassy or consulate between September 9, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact Polish ground territory or any official Polish embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Polish soil is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Polish territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"俄羅斯在…前對波蘭發動襲擊？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "2026年6月30日" at 4%, followed by "9月30日" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 4¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 4% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "俄羅斯在…前對波蘭發動襲擊？" has generated $1.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 9, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "俄羅斯在…前對波蘭發動襲擊？," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "俄羅斯在…前對波蘭發動襲擊？" is "2026年6月30日" at just 4%, with "9月30日" close behind at 0%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "俄羅斯在…前對波蘭發動襲擊？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.