Incumbent Lindsey Graham's multi-term tenure, extensive fundraising, and broad Republican establishment backing have anchored trader consensus around a 20–30 point first-round primary victory in South Carolina's June 9 Republican Senate contest. Recent polling averages placed Graham in the mid-to-high 40s against Mark Lynch in the mid-20s to low 30s, reflecting limited challenger momentum despite some well-funded opposition. Graham's consistent performance across surveys, combined with the state's reliably Republican primary electorate, has kept alternative margin brackets below 2 percent. A late surge by Lynch or another listed candidate that narrows the gap below 20 points or pushes it above 30 remains the main scenario that could shift the implied probability, though such movement has not appeared in final polling or early returns.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於格雷厄姆 20-30% 96.5%
格雷厄姆40–50% 1.9%
格雷厄姆30–40% 1.3%
格雷姆 10–20% 1.2%
$7,832 交易量
$7,832 交易量
2026-06-09
格雷厄姆50%+
<1%
格雷厄姆40–50%
2%
格雷厄姆30–40%
1%
格雷厄姆 20-30%
97%
格雷姆 10–20%
1%
格雷厄姆少於10%
1%
林奇勝出
1%
格雷厄姆 20-30% 96.5%
格雷厄姆40–50% 1.9%
格雷厄姆30–40% 1.3%
格雷姆 10–20% 1.2%
$7,832 交易量
$7,832 交易量
2026-06-09
格雷厄姆50%+
$1,401 交易量
<1%
格雷厄姆40–50%
$1,622 交易量
2%
格雷厄姆30–40%
$276 交易量
1%
格雷厄姆 20-30%
$926 交易量
97%
格雷姆 10–20%
$1,201 交易量
1%
格雷厄姆少於10%
$1,784 交易量
1%
林奇勝出
$622 交易量
1%
Primary elections in South Carolina are scheduled to be held on June 9, 2026, with a runoff election scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the South Carolina Senate Republican Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Incumbent Lindsey Graham's multi-term tenure, extensive fundraising, and broad Republican establishment backing have anchored trader consensus around a 20–30 point first-round primary victory in South Carolina's June 9 Republican Senate contest. Recent polling averages placed Graham in the mid-to-high 40s against Mark Lynch in the mid-20s to low 30s, reflecting limited challenger momentum despite some well-funded opposition. Graham's consistent performance across surveys, combined with the state's reliably Republican primary electorate, has kept alternative margin brackets below 2 percent. A late surge by Lynch or another listed candidate that narrows the gap below 20 points or pushes it above 30 remains the main scenario that could shift the implied probability, though such movement has not appeared in final polling or early returns.
Primary elections in South Carolina are scheduled to be held on June 9, 2026, with a runoff election scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the South Carolina Senate Republican Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the South Carolina Senate Republican Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
市場開放時間： Jun 8, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
交易量
$7,832結束日期
2026-06-09市場開放時間
Jun 8, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Primary elections in South Carolina are scheduled to be held on June 9, 2026, with a runoff election scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the South Carolina Senate Republican Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Incumbent Lindsey Graham's multi-term tenure, extensive fundraising, and broad Republican establishment backing have anchored trader consensus around a 20–30 point first-round primary victory in South Carolina's June 9 Republican Senate contest. Recent polling averages placed Graham in the mid-to-high 40s against Mark Lynch in the mid-20s to low 30s, reflecting limited challenger momentum despite some well-funded opposition. Graham's consistent performance across surveys, combined with the state's reliably Republican primary electorate, has kept alternative margin brackets below 2 percent. A late surge by Lynch or another listed candidate that narrows the gap below 20 points or pushes it above 30 remains the main scenario that could shift the implied probability, though such movement has not appeared in final polling or early returns.
Primary elections in South Carolina are scheduled to be held on June 9, 2026, with a runoff election scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the South Carolina Senate Republican Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the South Carolina Senate Republican Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
交易量
$7,832結束日期
2026-06-09市場開放時間
Jun 8, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Lindsey Graham's multi-term tenure, extensive fundraising, and broad Republican establishment backing have anchored trader consensus around a 20–30 point first-round primary victory in South Carolina's June 9 Republican Senate contest. Recent polling averages placed Graham in the mid-to-high 40s against Mark Lynch in the mid-20s to low 30s, reflecting limited challenger momentum despite some well-funded opposition. Graham's consistent performance across surveys, combined with the state's reliably Republican primary electorate, has kept alternative margin brackets below 2 percent. A late surge by Lynch or another listed candidate that narrows the gap below 20 points or pushes it above 30 remains the main scenario that could shift the implied probability, though such movement has not appeared in final polling or early returns.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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Frequently Asked Questions