Trump’s recent threats of “economic D-Day” sanctions and Treasury Secretary Bessent’s August 20 statements on the “toughest sanctions in history” reflect the collapse of the June Islamabad MOU after its 60-day negotiating window expired without a final nuclear or sanctions-lifting accord. Ongoing disputes over Strait of Hormuz access, the U.S. naval blockade, and Iranian compliance have prompted renewed designations and license revocations through existing OFAC authorities rather than immediate new executive action. With the August 28 deadline only days away and no public schedule for a signing ceremony, trader consensus assigns “No” a 57% implied probability, viewing formal executive order issuance as unlikely in the narrow window despite the administration’s broader maximum-pressure posture.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於43% 機率
最新
最新
2026-08-28
43% 機率
最新
最新
2026-08-28
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs or issues an executive order, proclamation, or memorandum authorizing or ordering new sanctions on Iran by August 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Sanctions are official government measures that restrict economic activity, financial transactions, trade, travel, or diplomatic engagement with Iran. Qualifying sanctions include comprehensive economic embargoes restricting most trade and financial transactions; sectoral sanctions targeting specific industries (e.g., energy, finance, defense, or technology); asset freezes and blocking of property owned by Iran or Iranian citizens; trade restrictions including export controls, import bans, or tariffs imposed explicitly as sanctions; financial sanctions including restrictions on banking relationships, access to financial systems, or international lending; travel bans and visa restrictions; and arms embargoes.
Secondary sanctions against third-party countries or entities designated for dealings with Iran will qualify. The expansion in scope of previously existing sanctions against Iran will qualify; however, the renewal of existing sanctions without modification will not qualify.
The following will not qualify: the non-renewal or expiration of licenses or other sanction-exemptions; the designation of new specific entities to be sanctioned under an existing rule absent new sanctions; and enforcement settlements or civil penalties for past conduct.
The passage of an official act/executive order authorizing sanctions on Iran within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the sanctions come into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump’s recent threats of “economic D-Day” sanctions and Treasury Secretary Bessent’s August 20 statements on the “toughest sanctions in history” reflect the collapse of the June Islamabad MOU after its 60-day negotiating window expired without a final nuclear or sanctions-lifting accord. Ongoing disputes over Strait of Hormuz access, the U.S. naval blockade, and Iranian compliance have prompted renewed designations and license revocations through existing OFAC authorities rather than immediate new executive action. With the August 28 deadline only days away and no public schedule for a signing ceremony, trader consensus assigns “No” a 57% implied probability, viewing formal executive order issuance as unlikely in the narrow window despite the administration’s broader maximum-pressure posture.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs or issues an executive order, proclamation, or memorandum authorizing or ordering new sanctions on Iran by August 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Sanctions are official government measures that restrict economic activity, financial transactions, trade, travel, or diplomatic engagement with Iran. Qualifying sanctions include comprehensive economic embargoes restricting most trade and financial transactions; sectoral sanctions targeting specific industries (e.g., energy, finance, defense, or technology); asset freezes and blocking of property owned by Iran or Iranian citizens; trade restrictions including export controls, import bans, or tariffs imposed explicitly as sanctions; financial sanctions including restrictions on banking relationships, access to financial systems, or international lending; travel bans and visa restrictions; and arms embargoes.
Secondary sanctions against third-party countries or entities designated for dealings with Iran will qualify. The expansion in scope of previously existing sanctions against Iran will qualify; however, the renewal of existing sanctions without modification will not qualify.
The following will not qualify: the non-renewal or expiration of licenses or other sanction-exemptions; the designation of new specific entities to be sanctioned under an existing rule absent new sanctions; and enforcement settlements or civil penalties for past conduct.
The passage of an official act/executive order authorizing sanctions on Iran within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the sanctions come into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sanctions are official government measures that restrict economic activity, financial transactions, trade, travel, or diplomatic engagement with Iran. Qualifying sanctions include comprehensive economic embargoes restricting most trade and financial transactions; sectoral sanctions targeting specific industries (e.g., energy, finance, defense, or technology); asset freezes and blocking of property owned by Iran or Iranian citizens; trade restrictions including export controls, import bans, or tariffs imposed explicitly as sanctions; financial sanctions including restrictions on banking relationships, access to financial systems, or international lending; travel bans and visa restrictions; and arms embargoes.
Secondary sanctions against third-party countries or entities designated for dealings with Iran will qualify. The expansion in scope of previously existing sanctions against Iran will qualify; however, the renewal of existing sanctions without modification will not qualify.
The following will not qualify: the non-renewal or expiration of licenses or other sanction-exemptions; the designation of new specific entities to be sanctioned under an existing rule absent new sanctions; and enforcement settlements or civil penalties for past conduct.
The passage of an official act/executive order authorizing sanctions on Iran within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the sanctions come into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Aug 21, 2026, 4:27 PM ET
交易量
$99結束日期
2026-08-28市場開放時間
Aug 21, 2026, 4:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs or issues an executive order, proclamation, or memorandum authorizing or ordering new sanctions on Iran by August 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Sanctions are official government measures that restrict economic activity, financial transactions, trade, travel, or diplomatic engagement with Iran. Qualifying sanctions include comprehensive economic embargoes restricting most trade and financial transactions; sectoral sanctions targeting specific industries (e.g., energy, finance, defense, or technology); asset freezes and blocking of property owned by Iran or Iranian citizens; trade restrictions including export controls, import bans, or tariffs imposed explicitly as sanctions; financial sanctions including restrictions on banking relationships, access to financial systems, or international lending; travel bans and visa restrictions; and arms embargoes.
Secondary sanctions against third-party countries or entities designated for dealings with Iran will qualify. The expansion in scope of previously existing sanctions against Iran will qualify; however, the renewal of existing sanctions without modification will not qualify.
The following will not qualify: the non-renewal or expiration of licenses or other sanction-exemptions; the designation of new specific entities to be sanctioned under an existing rule absent new sanctions; and enforcement settlements or civil penalties for past conduct.
The passage of an official act/executive order authorizing sanctions on Iran within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the sanctions come into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump’s recent threats of “economic D-Day” sanctions and Treasury Secretary Bessent’s August 20 statements on the “toughest sanctions in history” reflect the collapse of the June Islamabad MOU after its 60-day negotiating window expired without a final nuclear or sanctions-lifting accord. Ongoing disputes over Strait of Hormuz access, the U.S. naval blockade, and Iranian compliance have prompted renewed designations and license revocations through existing OFAC authorities rather than immediate new executive action. With the August 28 deadline only days away and no public schedule for a signing ceremony, trader consensus assigns “No” a 57% implied probability, viewing formal executive order issuance as unlikely in the narrow window despite the administration’s broader maximum-pressure posture.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs or issues an executive order, proclamation, or memorandum authorizing or ordering new sanctions on Iran by August 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Sanctions are official government measures that restrict economic activity, financial transactions, trade, travel, or diplomatic engagement with Iran. Qualifying sanctions include comprehensive economic embargoes restricting most trade and financial transactions; sectoral sanctions targeting specific industries (e.g., energy, finance, defense, or technology); asset freezes and blocking of property owned by Iran or Iranian citizens; trade restrictions including export controls, import bans, or tariffs imposed explicitly as sanctions; financial sanctions including restrictions on banking relationships, access to financial systems, or international lending; travel bans and visa restrictions; and arms embargoes.
Secondary sanctions against third-party countries or entities designated for dealings with Iran will qualify. The expansion in scope of previously existing sanctions against Iran will qualify; however, the renewal of existing sanctions without modification will not qualify.
The following will not qualify: the non-renewal or expiration of licenses or other sanction-exemptions; the designation of new specific entities to be sanctioned under an existing rule absent new sanctions; and enforcement settlements or civil penalties for past conduct.
The passage of an official act/executive order authorizing sanctions on Iran within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the sanctions come into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sanctions are official government measures that restrict economic activity, financial transactions, trade, travel, or diplomatic engagement with Iran. Qualifying sanctions include comprehensive economic embargoes restricting most trade and financial transactions; sectoral sanctions targeting specific industries (e.g., energy, finance, defense, or technology); asset freezes and blocking of property owned by Iran or Iranian citizens; trade restrictions including export controls, import bans, or tariffs imposed explicitly as sanctions; financial sanctions including restrictions on banking relationships, access to financial systems, or international lending; travel bans and visa restrictions; and arms embargoes.
Secondary sanctions against third-party countries or entities designated for dealings with Iran will qualify. The expansion in scope of previously existing sanctions against Iran will qualify; however, the renewal of existing sanctions without modification will not qualify.
The following will not qualify: the non-renewal or expiration of licenses or other sanction-exemptions; the designation of new specific entities to be sanctioned under an existing rule absent new sanctions; and enforcement settlements or civil penalties for past conduct.
The passage of an official act/executive order authorizing sanctions on Iran within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the sanctions come into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$99結束日期
2026-08-28市場開放時間
Aug 21, 2026, 4:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump’s recent threats of “economic D-Day” sanctions and Treasury Secretary Bessent’s August 20 statements on the “toughest sanctions in history” reflect the collapse of the June Islamabad MOU after its 60-day negotiating window expired without a final nuclear or sanctions-lifting accord. Ongoing disputes over Strait of Hormuz access, the U.S. naval blockade, and Iranian compliance have prompted renewed designations and license revocations through existing OFAC authorities rather than immediate new executive action. With the August 28 deadline only days away and no public schedule for a signing ceremony, trader consensus assigns “No” a 57% implied probability, viewing formal executive order issuance as unlikely in the narrow window despite the administration’s broader maximum-pressure posture.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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