Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s August 28 Jackson Hole keynote occurs amid core PCE inflation near 3.3%, a 3.50–3.75% federal funds rate, and market-implied odds favoring one or two hikes by year-end rather than cuts. Since assuming the role in May 2026, Warsh has emphasized “regime change,” stating the Fed is “not constrained by market prices” and prioritizing long-term monetary framework issues tied to financial innovation over forward guidance or quarter-point signals. This approach, consistent with shortened FOMC statements and his July comments framing “big questions,” drives trader focus on whether the speech will stress structural factors such as productivity, inflation persistence, or policy independence versus delivering any hawkish tilt. The September 16 FOMC meeting remains the next key catalyst for any repricing of rate-path probabilities.