**Traders assign an 87% probability to no Turkish constitutional referendum being announced in 2026, reflecting the government’s current emphasis on parliamentary procedures to enable President Erdoğan’s potential 2028 candidacy rather than pursuing immediate constitutional overhaul.** Senior presidential adviser Mehmet Uçum and Justice Minister Akın Gürlek have publicly outlined plans for the next presidential and parliamentary elections around April 2028, relying on a parliamentary vote under Article 116 to call early elections during Erdoğan’s second term. This route requires 360 votes in the 600-seat Grand National Assembly to bypass term limits without amending the constitution or holding a referendum this year. The AKP-MHP alliance holds roughly 320-326 seats and would need additional support to reach that threshold. Discussions of a new constitution continue, but Uçum indicated in August 2026 that any such effort is unlikely to advance in the current legislative period and would probably occur later, with any resulting changes still subject to popular approval. Recent legislative activity has centered on the PKK peace process and related amnesty measures passed in August, which have not translated into momentum for a 2026 constitutional referendum. Opposition parties have resisted changes that would extend executive power, and no official announcements or parliamentary initiatives for a referendum vote this year have materialized. Scheduled events through the remainder of 2026 offer no clear trigger for such a process, leaving the trader consensus aligned with the prevailing strategy of deferring major constitutional steps until nearer the 2028 electoral timeline.