The Trump administration's maximum pressure campaign against Cuba centers on economic coercion through a January 2026 executive order imposing tariffs on oil suppliers and a de facto blockade, following the cutoff of Venezuelan shipments after the Maduro capture. Military signaling peaked in May with the USS Nimitz carrier group deployment, expanded reconnaissance flights, Marine rotations, and the indictment of Raúl Castro, but recent developments indicate a pivot to intensified sanctions targeting revenue networks and transition figures. Traders view these steps, alongside Cuba's reported negotiations and prisoner releases amid fuel shortages, as evidence that full-scale offensive operations for territorial control remain improbable through year-end, despite retained options for limited strikes. Ongoing resource demands from other theaters further constrain escalation pathways.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$7,285,521 交易量
2026-12-31
12月31日
18%
$7,285,521 交易量
12月31日
$5,106,416 交易量
18%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.The Trump administration's maximum pressure campaign against Cuba centers on economic coercion through a January 2026 executive order imposing tariffs on oil suppliers and a de facto blockade, following the cutoff of Venezuelan shipments after the Maduro capture. Military signaling peaked in May with the USS Nimitz carrier group deployment, expanded reconnaissance flights, Marine rotations, and the indictment of Raúl Castro, but recent developments indicate a pivot to intensified sanctions targeting revenue networks and transition figures. Traders view these steps, alongside Cuba's reported negotiations and prisoner releases amid fuel shortages, as evidence that full-scale offensive operations for territorial control remain improbable through year-end, despite retained options for limited strikes. Ongoing resource demands from other theaters further constrain escalation pathways.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
市場開放時間： Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
交易量
$7,285,521結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.The Trump administration's maximum pressure campaign against Cuba centers on economic coercion through a January 2026 executive order imposing tariffs on oil suppliers and a de facto blockade, following the cutoff of Venezuelan shipments after the Maduro capture. Military signaling peaked in May with the USS Nimitz carrier group deployment, expanded reconnaissance flights, Marine rotations, and the indictment of Raúl Castro, but recent developments indicate a pivot to intensified sanctions targeting revenue networks and transition figures. Traders view these steps, alongside Cuba's reported negotiations and prisoner releases amid fuel shortages, as evidence that full-scale offensive operations for territorial control remain improbable through year-end, despite retained options for limited strikes. Ongoing resource demands from other theaters further constrain escalation pathways.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
交易量
$7,285,521結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Trump administration's maximum pressure campaign against Cuba centers on economic coercion through a January 2026 executive order imposing tariffs on oil suppliers and a de facto blockade, following the cutoff of Venezuelan shipments after the Maduro capture. Military signaling peaked in May with the USS Nimitz carrier group deployment, expanded reconnaissance flights, Marine rotations, and the indictment of Raúl Castro, but recent developments indicate a pivot to intensified sanctions targeting revenue networks and transition figures. Traders view these steps, alongside Cuba's reported negotiations and prisoner releases amid fuel shortages, as evidence that full-scale offensive operations for territorial control remain improbable through year-end, despite retained options for limited strikes. Ongoing resource demands from other theaters further constrain escalation pathways.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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