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選舉·主要

NY-04民主黨初選獲勝者

icon for NY-04民主黨初選獲勝者
選舉·主要

NY-04民主黨初選獲勝者

勞拉·吉倫 86%

尼古拉斯·斯基雷塔 11%

Taylor Darling 4.5%

Gian Jones <1%

Polymarket

$18,925 交易量

勞拉·吉倫 86%

尼古拉斯·斯基雷塔 11%

Taylor Darling 4.5%

Gian Jones <1%

Polymarket

$18,925 交易量

勞拉·吉倫

$6,360 交易量

86%

尼古拉斯·斯基雷塔

$8,783 交易量

11%

Taylor Darling

$2,126 交易量

5%

Gian Jones

$1,656 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Laura Gillen maintains a commanding lead in the June 23 Democratic primary for New York’s 4th congressional district, backed by over $2 million in fundraising and $1.5 million in cash on hand compared with challengers who have each raised under $30,000. Her January 2026 vote to fund the Department of Homeland Security, which included Immigration and Customs Enforcement appropriations, prompted progressive challengers including former Assembly member Taylor Darling, Nicholas Sciretta, and Gian Jones to enter the race. The fragmented field, combined with an endorsement from Nassau County Democratic leader Jay Jacobs and the closed primary’s low-turnout dynamics, has solidified trader consensus around Gillen’s structural advantages ahead of the vote. No public polls have been released to date.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$18,925
結束日期
2026-06-23
市場開放時間
Dec 1, 2025, 3:58 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Laura Gillen maintains a commanding lead in the June 23 Democratic primary for New York’s 4th congressional district, backed by over $2 million in fundraising and $1.5 million in cash on hand compared with challengers who have each raised under $30,000. Her January 2026 vote to fund the Department of Homeland Security, which included Immigration and Customs Enforcement appropriations, prompted progressive challengers including former Assembly member Taylor Darling, Nicholas Sciretta, and Gian Jones to enter the race. The fragmented field, combined with an endorsement from Nassau County Democratic leader Jay Jacobs and the closed primary’s low-turnout dynamics, has solidified trader consensus around Gillen’s structural advantages ahead of the vote. No public polls have been released to date.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$18,925
結束日期
2026-06-23
市場開放時間
Dec 1, 2025, 3:58 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"NY-04民主黨初選獲勝者" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "勞拉·吉倫" at 86%, followed by "尼古拉斯·斯基雷塔" at 11%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 86¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 86% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "NY-04民主黨初選獲勝者" has generated $18.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 1, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "NY-04民主黨初選獲勝者," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "NY-04民主黨初選獲勝者" is "勞拉·吉倫" at 86%, meaning the market assigns a 86% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "尼古拉斯·斯基雷塔" at 11%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "NY-04民主黨初選獲勝者" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.