Apple's long-standing pattern of annual flagship smartphone launches, combined with multiple reports confirming a September 2026 keynote for the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and foldable Ultra, underpins the 98.3% market-implied odds for a release this year. Supply-chain details and analyst timelines align with the traditional fall window, even as some base iPhone 18 and Air variants face potential spring 2027 delays to accommodate the new foldable focus. Traders view the Pro models as satisfying the core resolution criteria, given consistent executive messaging and no major production setbacks reported. While a complete naming overhaul, regulatory holdup, or last-minute supply issue could theoretically shift the outcome, the proximity to the expected event and decades of precedent make such disruptions unlikely.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
98% 機率
$173,146 交易量
$173,146 交易量
2026-12-31
是
98% 機率
$173,146 交易量
$173,146 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's long-standing pattern of annual flagship smartphone launches, combined with multiple reports confirming a September 2026 keynote for the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and foldable Ultra, underpins the 98.3% market-implied odds for a release this year. Supply-chain details and analyst timelines align with the traditional fall window, even as some base iPhone 18 and Air variants face potential spring 2027 delays to accommodate the new foldable focus. Traders view the Pro models as satisfying the core resolution criteria, given consistent executive messaging and no major production setbacks reported. While a complete naming overhaul, regulatory holdup, or last-minute supply issue could theoretically shift the outcome, the proximity to the expected event and decades of precedent make such disruptions unlikely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
交易量
$173,146結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's long-standing pattern of annual flagship smartphone launches, combined with multiple reports confirming a September 2026 keynote for the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and foldable Ultra, underpins the 98.3% market-implied odds for a release this year. Supply-chain details and analyst timelines align with the traditional fall window, even as some base iPhone 18 and Air variants face potential spring 2027 delays to accommodate the new foldable focus. Traders view the Pro models as satisfying the core resolution criteria, given consistent executive messaging and no major production setbacks reported. While a complete naming overhaul, regulatory holdup, or last-minute supply issue could theoretically shift the outcome, the proximity to the expected event and decades of precedent make such disruptions unlikely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$173,146結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's long-standing pattern of annual flagship smartphone launches, combined with multiple reports confirming a September 2026 keynote for the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and foldable Ultra, underpins the 98.3% market-implied odds for a release this year. Supply-chain details and analyst timelines align with the traditional fall window, even as some base iPhone 18 and Air variants face potential spring 2027 delays to accommodate the new foldable focus. Traders view the Pro models as satisfying the core resolution criteria, given consistent executive messaging and no major production setbacks reported. While a complete naming overhaul, regulatory holdup, or last-minute supply issue could theoretically shift the outcome, the proximity to the expected event and decades of precedent make such disruptions unlikely.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions