María Corina Machado, the Venezuelan opposition leader and 2025 Nobel Peace Prize recipient, has repeatedly stated her intent to return from exile following the January 2026 U.S. capture of Nicolás Maduro and the subsequent installation of Delcy Rodríguez as acting president. Multiple attempts in June and July 2026, including routes via Curaçao and Panama, were blocked when airlines refused boarding and Venezuelan authorities closed airspace, citing stability concerns. The U.S. State Department has described such moves as counterproductive amid ongoing transition talks that began August 1, which Machado and Edmundo González Urrutia declined to join. These developments, combined with her public coordination with U.S. officials including meetings with President Trump, explain the low near-term probabilities on related prediction markets while leaving room for later shifts tied to diplomatic progress or policy changes before year-end deadlines.