Recent diplomatic momentum from the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding between the United States and Iran, which outlined a 60-day window for finalizing terms on sanctions relief, nuclear limits, and Strait of Hormuz access while referencing a future binding UNSC resolution, has stalled amid renewed disputes. As of mid-August 2026, negotiations remain deadlocked over Hormuz reopening conditions, with Iran conditioning passage on U.S. concessions including reparations and sanctions relief, and the United States demanding compensation and maintaining a naval blockade in response to Iranian actions. Ongoing exchanges of demands, Iranian assertions of control over the strait, and U.S. statements emphasizing economic pressure have prevented agreement on core nuclear and security provisions needed for a comprehensive deal. These developments have shaped trader consensus that a finalized accord endorsed by the UN Security Council is unlikely to materialize by the December 31 deadline, despite the earlier framework.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
21% 機率
$157,040 交易量
$157,040 交易量
2026-12-31
是
21% 機率
$157,040 交易量
$157,040 交易量
2026-12-31
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Recent diplomatic momentum from the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding between the United States and Iran, which outlined a 60-day window for finalizing terms on sanctions relief, nuclear limits, and Strait of Hormuz access while referencing a future binding UNSC resolution, has stalled amid renewed disputes. As of mid-August 2026, negotiations remain deadlocked over Hormuz reopening conditions, with Iran conditioning passage on U.S. concessions including reparations and sanctions relief, and the United States demanding compensation and maintaining a naval blockade in response to Iranian actions. Ongoing exchanges of demands, Iranian assertions of control over the strait, and U.S. statements emphasizing economic pressure have prevented agreement on core nuclear and security provisions needed for a comprehensive deal. These developments have shaped trader consensus that a finalized accord endorsed by the UN Security Council is unlikely to materialize by the December 31 deadline, despite the earlier framework.
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jun 23, 2026, 12:51 AM ET
交易量
$157,040結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jun 23, 2026, 12:51 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Recent diplomatic momentum from the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding between the United States and Iran, which outlined a 60-day window for finalizing terms on sanctions relief, nuclear limits, and Strait of Hormuz access while referencing a future binding UNSC resolution, has stalled amid renewed disputes. As of mid-August 2026, negotiations remain deadlocked over Hormuz reopening conditions, with Iran conditioning passage on U.S. concessions including reparations and sanctions relief, and the United States demanding compensation and maintaining a naval blockade in response to Iranian actions. Ongoing exchanges of demands, Iranian assertions of control over the strait, and U.S. statements emphasizing economic pressure have prevented agreement on core nuclear and security provisions needed for a comprehensive deal. These developments have shaped trader consensus that a finalized accord endorsed by the UN Security Council is unlikely to materialize by the December 31 deadline, despite the earlier framework.
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$157,040結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jun 23, 2026, 12:51 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent diplomatic momentum from the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding between the United States and Iran, which outlined a 60-day window for finalizing terms on sanctions relief, nuclear limits, and Strait of Hormuz access while referencing a future binding UNSC resolution, has stalled amid renewed disputes. As of mid-August 2026, negotiations remain deadlocked over Hormuz reopening conditions, with Iran conditioning passage on U.S. concessions including reparations and sanctions relief, and the United States demanding compensation and maintaining a naval blockade in response to Iranian actions. Ongoing exchanges of demands, Iranian assertions of control over the strait, and U.S. statements emphasizing economic pressure have prevented agreement on core nuclear and security provisions needed for a comprehensive deal. These developments have shaped trader consensus that a finalized accord endorsed by the UN Security Council is unlikely to materialize by the December 31 deadline, despite the earlier framework.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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