Trader consensus reflects the extremely low base rate of 1-megaton impacts, which occur roughly once every few centuries globally according to impact frequency models, combined with continuous near-Earth object surveys showing no qualifying bodies on collision trajectories for the remainder of 2026. NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and related monitoring programs have identified only small, harmless close approaches in recent weeks, with no credible signals of larger undetected fragments capable of delivering megaton-scale energy. While planetary defense networks cannot guarantee zero surprises from dark or fast-moving objects, the absence of any alerts or orbital perturbations keeps implied probability of a strike below 2 percent.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
2% 概率
$116,343 交易量
$116,343 交易量
2026-12-30
是
2% 概率
$116,343 交易量
$116,343 交易量
2026-12-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus reflects the extremely low base rate of 1-megaton impacts, which occur roughly once every few centuries globally according to impact frequency models, combined with continuous near-Earth object surveys showing no qualifying bodies on collision trajectories for the remainder of 2026. NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and related monitoring programs have identified only small, harmless close approaches in recent weeks, with no credible signals of larger undetected fragments capable of delivering megaton-scale energy. While planetary defense networks cannot guarantee zero surprises from dark or fast-moving objects, the absence of any alerts or orbital perturbations keeps implied probability of a strike below 2 percent.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
市场开放时间： Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
交易量
$116,343结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus reflects the extremely low base rate of 1-megaton impacts, which occur roughly once every few centuries globally according to impact frequency models, combined with continuous near-Earth object surveys showing no qualifying bodies on collision trajectories for the remainder of 2026. NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and related monitoring programs have identified only small, harmless close approaches in recent weeks, with no credible signals of larger undetected fragments capable of delivering megaton-scale energy. While planetary defense networks cannot guarantee zero surprises from dark or fast-moving objects, the absence of any alerts or orbital perturbations keeps implied probability of a strike below 2 percent.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
交易量
$116,343结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects the extremely low base rate of 1-megaton impacts, which occur roughly once every few centuries globally according to impact frequency models, combined with continuous near-Earth object surveys showing no qualifying bodies on collision trajectories for the remainder of 2026. NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and related monitoring programs have identified only small, harmless close approaches in recent weeks, with no credible signals of larger undetected fragments capable of delivering megaton-scale energy. While planetary defense networks cannot guarantee zero surprises from dark or fast-moving objects, the absence of any alerts or orbital perturbations keeps implied probability of a strike below 2 percent.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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