NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, or CNEOS, Sentry system currently lists no known near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of producing a 1-megaton airburst in 2026, anchoring trader consensus around the 96.9 percent “No” outcome. Ongoing surveys by Pan-STARRS and Catalina Sky Survey continue to detect only safe close approaches, such as the recent 50- to 100-foot asteroid 2026 JH2 that passed at 56,700 miles. Historical records show objects releasing 440 kilotons, like the 2013 Chelyabinsk bolide, occur roughly once per decade, while true 1-megaton events remain far rarer. The modest remaining uncertainty stems from the slim possibility of an undetected sub-30-meter object entering undetected before atmospheric entry, though expanding infrared capabilities via the NEO Surveyor mission are steadily reducing that blind-spot risk ahead of year-end resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$106,060 交易量
$106,060 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$106,060 交易量
$106,060 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, or CNEOS, Sentry system currently lists no known near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of producing a 1-megaton airburst in 2026, anchoring trader consensus around the 96.9 percent “No” outcome. Ongoing surveys by Pan-STARRS and Catalina Sky Survey continue to detect only safe close approaches, such as the recent 50- to 100-foot asteroid 2026 JH2 that passed at 56,700 miles. Historical records show objects releasing 440 kilotons, like the 2013 Chelyabinsk bolide, occur roughly once per decade, while true 1-megaton events remain far rarer. The modest remaining uncertainty stems from the slim possibility of an undetected sub-30-meter object entering undetected before atmospheric entry, though expanding infrared capabilities via the NEO Surveyor mission are steadily reducing that blind-spot risk ahead of year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
市场开放时间： Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
交易量
$106,060结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, or CNEOS, Sentry system currently lists no known near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of producing a 1-megaton airburst in 2026, anchoring trader consensus around the 96.9 percent “No” outcome. Ongoing surveys by Pan-STARRS and Catalina Sky Survey continue to detect only safe close approaches, such as the recent 50- to 100-foot asteroid 2026 JH2 that passed at 56,700 miles. Historical records show objects releasing 440 kilotons, like the 2013 Chelyabinsk bolide, occur roughly once per decade, while true 1-megaton events remain far rarer. The modest remaining uncertainty stems from the slim possibility of an undetected sub-30-meter object entering undetected before atmospheric entry, though expanding infrared capabilities via the NEO Surveyor mission are steadily reducing that blind-spot risk ahead of year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
交易量
$106,060结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, or CNEOS, Sentry system currently lists no known near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of producing a 1-megaton airburst in 2026, anchoring trader consensus around the 96.9 percent “No” outcome. Ongoing surveys by Pan-STARRS and Catalina Sky Survey continue to detect only safe close approaches, such as the recent 50- to 100-foot asteroid 2026 JH2 that passed at 56,700 miles. Historical records show objects releasing 440 kilotons, like the 2013 Chelyabinsk bolide, occur roughly once per decade, while true 1-megaton events remain far rarer. The modest remaining uncertainty stems from the slim possibility of an undetected sub-30-meter object entering undetected before atmospheric entry, though expanding infrared capabilities via the NEO Surveyor mission are steadily reducing that blind-spot risk ahead of year-end resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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