Strong El Niño conditions, now intensifying with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2.5°C, combined with record global sea-surface temperatures (highest July values on record per NOAA and Copernicus), have driven daily global mean surface air temperatures for August 1–3, 2026, to new highs. These factors sustain elevated heat content in the upper ocean, delaying atmospheric cooling and producing anomalies that surpass prior daily peaks from 2023–2024. Market-implied odds near 97% for the hottest outcome reflect this physical setup, consistent with July 2026 tying the warmest July on record and early-August Northern Hemisphere extremes. Revisions in final reanalysis datasets or an unusually rapid shift in atmospheric circulation could alter rankings, though such adjustments have historically been modest relative to the observed margins.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2026年8月1日、2日、3日有史以来最热？
2026年8月1日、2日、3日有史以来最热？
1st hottest 96.9%
3rd hottest 2.9%
2nd hottest 2.8%
4th or lower 1.0%
最新
最新
2026-08-31
1st hottest
97%
2nd hottest
3%
3rd hottest
3%
4th or lower
1%
1st hottest 96.9%
3rd hottest 2.9%
2nd hottest 2.8%
4th or lower 1.0%
最新
最新
2026-08-31
1st hottest
$510 交易量
97%
2nd hottest
$334 交易量
3%
3rd hottest
$152 交易量
3%
4th or lower
$151 交易量
1%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Strong El Niño conditions, now intensifying with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2.5°C, combined with record global sea-surface temperatures (highest July values on record per NOAA and Copernicus), have driven daily global mean surface air temperatures for August 1–3, 2026, to new highs. These factors sustain elevated heat content in the upper ocean, delaying atmospheric cooling and producing anomalies that surpass prior daily peaks from 2023–2024. Market-implied odds near 97% for the hottest outcome reflect this physical setup, consistent with July 2026 tying the warmest July on record and early-August Northern Hemisphere extremes. Revisions in final reanalysis datasets or an unusually rapid shift in atmospheric circulation could alter rankings, though such adjustments have historically been modest relative to the observed margins.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
市场开放时间： Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
交易量
$1,147结束日期
2026-09-01市场开放时间
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Strong El Niño conditions, now intensifying with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2.5°C, combined with record global sea-surface temperatures (highest July values on record per NOAA and Copernicus), have driven daily global mean surface air temperatures for August 1–3, 2026, to new highs. These factors sustain elevated heat content in the upper ocean, delaying atmospheric cooling and producing anomalies that surpass prior daily peaks from 2023–2024. Market-implied odds near 97% for the hottest outcome reflect this physical setup, consistent with July 2026 tying the warmest July on record and early-August Northern Hemisphere extremes. Revisions in final reanalysis datasets or an unusually rapid shift in atmospheric circulation could alter rankings, though such adjustments have historically been modest relative to the observed margins.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
交易量
$1,147结束日期
2026-09-01市场开放时间
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong El Niño conditions, now intensifying with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2.5°C, combined with record global sea-surface temperatures (highest July values on record per NOAA and Copernicus), have driven daily global mean surface air temperatures for August 1–3, 2026, to new highs. These factors sustain elevated heat content in the upper ocean, delaying atmospheric cooling and producing anomalies that surpass prior daily peaks from 2023–2024. Market-implied odds near 97% for the hottest outcome reflect this physical setup, consistent with July 2026 tying the warmest July on record and early-August Northern Hemisphere extremes. Revisions in final reanalysis datasets or an unusually rapid shift in atmospheric circulation could alter rankings, though such adjustments have historically been modest relative to the observed margins.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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