AfD leads recent polling in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern by wide margins, often 35-41 percent, which traders view as sufficient for pluralities of seats in those two September 2026 contests under the five-percent threshold rules. In Berlin the party has only recently edged ahead in some surveys around 19 percent, keeping a three-election sweep at lower implied probability. Other parties continue to rule out coalitions with AfD, but this does not affect the seat-plurality question. Persistent eastern strength and national polling near 28 percent underpin the market consensus favoring exactly two outcomes while leaving room for late swings if turnout or smaller-party thresholds shift.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2 74%
3 14.5%
1 12.3%
0 <1%
$53,791 交易量
$53,791 交易量
2026-12-31
0
1%
1
12%
2
74%
3
15%
2 74%
3 14.5%
1 12.3%
0 <1%
$53,791 交易量
$53,791 交易量
2026-12-31
0
$5,883 交易量
1%
1
$12,672 交易量
12%
2
$20,545 交易量
74%
3
$14,692 交易量
15%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (also known as Saxony-Anhalt), the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in September of 2026.
This market will resolve to the number of elections, among those three listed, in which Alternative für Deutschland, also referred to as AfD or Alternative for Germany, wins or ties for the greatest number of seats in these elections.
No other election in a German state parliamentary body will be considered, even if it is held in September of 2026.
A delayed election to any of the three referenced bodies will be considered so long as voting is completed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official websites of the listed parliamentary bodies. No potential challenge or invalidation of an election that occurs after the publication of the official results will be relevant to this market. AfD leads recent polling in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern by wide margins, often 35-41 percent, which traders view as sufficient for pluralities of seats in those two September 2026 contests under the five-percent threshold rules. In Berlin the party has only recently edged ahead in some surveys around 19 percent, keeping a three-election sweep at lower implied probability. Other parties continue to rule out coalitions with AfD, but this does not affect the seat-plurality question. Persistent eastern strength and national polling near 28 percent underpin the market consensus favoring exactly two outcomes while leaving room for late swings if turnout or smaller-party thresholds shift.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (also known as Saxony-Anhalt), the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in September of 2026.
This market will resolve to the number of elections, among those three listed, in which Alternative für Deutschland, also referred to as AfD or Alternative for Germany, wins or ties for the greatest number of seats in these elections.
No other election in a German state parliamentary body will be considered, even if it is held in September of 2026.
A delayed election to any of the three referenced bodies will be considered so long as voting is completed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official websites of the listed parliamentary bodies. No potential challenge or invalidation of an election that occurs after the publication of the official results will be relevant to this market.
This market will resolve to the number of elections, among those three listed, in which Alternative für Deutschland, also referred to as AfD or Alternative for Germany, wins or ties for the greatest number of seats in these elections.
No other election in a German state parliamentary body will be considered, even if it is held in September of 2026.
A delayed election to any of the three referenced bodies will be considered so long as voting is completed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official websites of the listed parliamentary bodies. No potential challenge or invalidation of an election that occurs after the publication of the official results will be relevant to this market.
市场开放时间： Jul 6, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
交易量
$53,791结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jul 6, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (also known as Saxony-Anhalt), the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in September of 2026.
This market will resolve to the number of elections, among those three listed, in which Alternative für Deutschland, also referred to as AfD or Alternative for Germany, wins or ties for the greatest number of seats in these elections.
No other election in a German state parliamentary body will be considered, even if it is held in September of 2026.
A delayed election to any of the three referenced bodies will be considered so long as voting is completed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official websites of the listed parliamentary bodies. No potential challenge or invalidation of an election that occurs after the publication of the official results will be relevant to this market. AfD leads recent polling in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern by wide margins, often 35-41 percent, which traders view as sufficient for pluralities of seats in those two September 2026 contests under the five-percent threshold rules. In Berlin the party has only recently edged ahead in some surveys around 19 percent, keeping a three-election sweep at lower implied probability. Other parties continue to rule out coalitions with AfD, but this does not affect the seat-plurality question. Persistent eastern strength and national polling near 28 percent underpin the market consensus favoring exactly two outcomes while leaving room for late swings if turnout or smaller-party thresholds shift.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (also known as Saxony-Anhalt), the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in September of 2026.
This market will resolve to the number of elections, among those three listed, in which Alternative für Deutschland, also referred to as AfD or Alternative for Germany, wins or ties for the greatest number of seats in these elections.
No other election in a German state parliamentary body will be considered, even if it is held in September of 2026.
A delayed election to any of the three referenced bodies will be considered so long as voting is completed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official websites of the listed parliamentary bodies. No potential challenge or invalidation of an election that occurs after the publication of the official results will be relevant to this market.
This market will resolve to the number of elections, among those three listed, in which Alternative für Deutschland, also referred to as AfD or Alternative for Germany, wins or ties for the greatest number of seats in these elections.
No other election in a German state parliamentary body will be considered, even if it is held in September of 2026.
A delayed election to any of the three referenced bodies will be considered so long as voting is completed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official websites of the listed parliamentary bodies. No potential challenge or invalidation of an election that occurs after the publication of the official results will be relevant to this market.
交易量
$53,791结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jul 6, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...AfD leads recent polling in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern by wide margins, often 35-41 percent, which traders view as sufficient for pluralities of seats in those two September 2026 contests under the five-percent threshold rules. In Berlin the party has only recently edged ahead in some surveys around 19 percent, keeping a three-election sweep at lower implied probability. Other parties continue to rule out coalitions with AfD, but this does not affect the seat-plurality question. Persistent eastern strength and national polling near 28 percent underpin the market consensus favoring exactly two outcomes while leaving room for late swings if turnout or smaller-party thresholds shift.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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