A strengthening El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2.0°C and official forecasts indicating a greater than 90% chance of a very strong episode by late 2026, serves as the dominant near-term driver elevating trader expectations for the August 2026 global temperature anomaly. This Pacific warming adds to the long-term anthropogenic trend, consistent with recent monthly records such as June 2026 at +1.09°C above the 20th-century baseline. Model ensembles show notable spread in peak intensity and timing, introducing uncertainty around exact August values within the narrow 1.30–1.45°C range, while atmospheric indices like the strongly negative Southern Oscillation Index reinforce the warm signal. Upcoming NOAA and IRI updates on ENSO evolution and August observational data releases will likely refine the closely matched market-implied probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2026年8月温度升高（ ºC ） （更高的罢工）
2026年8月温度升高（ ºC ） （更高的罢工）
1.38–1.41ºC 41%
1.42–1.45ºC 38%
>1.45ºC 34%
1.30–1.33ºC 33%
最新
最新
2026-09-01
<1.30ºC
5%
1.30–1.33ºC
33%
1.34–1.37ºC
32%
1.38–1.41ºC
41%
1.42–1.45ºC
38%
>1.45ºC
34%
1.38–1.41ºC 41%
1.42–1.45ºC 38%
>1.45ºC 34%
1.30–1.33ºC 33%
最新
最新
2026-09-01
<1.30ºC
$22 交易量
5%
1.30–1.33ºC
$0 交易量
33%
1.34–1.37ºC
$0 交易量
32%
1.38–1.41ºC
$0 交易量
41%
1.42–1.45ºC
$0 交易量
38%
>1.45ºC
$0 交易量
34%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strengthening El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2.0°C and official forecasts indicating a greater than 90% chance of a very strong episode by late 2026, serves as the dominant near-term driver elevating trader expectations for the August 2026 global temperature anomaly. This Pacific warming adds to the long-term anthropogenic trend, consistent with recent monthly records such as June 2026 at +1.09°C above the 20th-century baseline. Model ensembles show notable spread in peak intensity and timing, introducing uncertainty around exact August values within the narrow 1.30–1.45°C range, while atmospheric indices like the strongly negative Southern Oscillation Index reinforce the warm signal. Upcoming NOAA and IRI updates on ENSO evolution and August observational data releases will likely refine the closely matched market-implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
市场开放时间： Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ET
交易量
$22结束日期
2026-09-01市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strengthening El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2.0°C and official forecasts indicating a greater than 90% chance of a very strong episode by late 2026, serves as the dominant near-term driver elevating trader expectations for the August 2026 global temperature anomaly. This Pacific warming adds to the long-term anthropogenic trend, consistent with recent monthly records such as June 2026 at +1.09°C above the 20th-century baseline. Model ensembles show notable spread in peak intensity and timing, introducing uncertainty around exact August values within the narrow 1.30–1.45°C range, while atmospheric indices like the strongly negative Southern Oscillation Index reinforce the warm signal. Upcoming NOAA and IRI updates on ENSO evolution and August observational data releases will likely refine the closely matched market-implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
交易量
$22结束日期
2026-09-01市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A strengthening El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2.0°C and official forecasts indicating a greater than 90% chance of a very strong episode by late 2026, serves as the dominant near-term driver elevating trader expectations for the August 2026 global temperature anomaly. This Pacific warming adds to the long-term anthropogenic trend, consistent with recent monthly records such as June 2026 at +1.09°C above the 20th-century baseline. Model ensembles show notable spread in peak intensity and timing, introducing uncertainty around exact August values within the narrow 1.30–1.45°C range, while atmospheric indices like the strongly negative Southern Oscillation Index reinforce the warm signal. Upcoming NOAA and IRI updates on ENSO evolution and August observational data releases will likely refine the closely matched market-implied probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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