Recent Met Office forecasts and ensemble model consensus point to a 35–36°C peak in London on August 13 under building high pressure, strong subsidence warming, prolonged sunshine, and light winds that maximize daytime heating. These conditions, combined with London’s urban heat-island effect, underpin the closely matched implied probabilities of 44% for 36°C and 39.5% for 35°C. Minor differences in cloud timing, boundary-layer mixing, or model spread around the daily maximum create realistic pathways for 37°C or a lower 34°C outcome, while historical August extremes and current amber heat warnings frame the elevated baseline without guaranteeing a specific threshold.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月13日伦敦气温最高？
8月13日伦敦气温最高？
35°C 40%
36°C 39%
34°C 10%
37°C 9%
最新
$22,107 交易量
最新
$22,107 交易量
2026-08-13
30°C or below
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
2%
34°C
10%
35°C
40%
36°C
39%
37°C
9%
38°C
2%
39°C
1%
40°C or higher
<1%
35°C 40%
36°C 39%
34°C 10%
37°C 9%
最新
$22,107 交易量
最新
$22,107 交易量
2026-08-13
30°C or below
$4,154 交易量
<1%
31°C
$1,373 交易量
<1%
32°C
$908 交易量
<1%
33°C
$1,961 交易量
2%
34°C
$2,940 交易量
10%
35°C
$3,423 交易量
40%
36°C
$3,122 交易量
39%
37°C
$1,696 交易量
9%
38°C
$1,364 交易量
2%
39°C
$649 交易量
1%
40°C or higher
$517 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office forecasts and ensemble model consensus point to a 35–36°C peak in London on August 13 under building high pressure, strong subsidence warming, prolonged sunshine, and light winds that maximize daytime heating. These conditions, combined with London’s urban heat-island effect, underpin the closely matched implied probabilities of 44% for 36°C and 39.5% for 35°C. Minor differences in cloud timing, boundary-layer mixing, or model spread around the daily maximum create realistic pathways for 37°C or a lower 34°C outcome, while historical August extremes and current amber heat warnings frame the elevated baseline without guaranteeing a specific threshold.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 11, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
交易量
$22,107结束日期
2026-08-13市场开放时间
Aug 11, 2026, 1:02 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office forecasts and ensemble model consensus point to a 35–36°C peak in London on August 13 under building high pressure, strong subsidence warming, prolonged sunshine, and light winds that maximize daytime heating. These conditions, combined with London’s urban heat-island effect, underpin the closely matched implied probabilities of 44% for 36°C and 39.5% for 35°C. Minor differences in cloud timing, boundary-layer mixing, or model spread around the daily maximum create realistic pathways for 37°C or a lower 34°C outcome, while historical August extremes and current amber heat warnings frame the elevated baseline without guaranteeing a specific threshold.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$22,107结束日期
2026-08-13市场开放时间
Aug 11, 2026, 1:02 AM ETRecent Met Office forecasts and ensemble model consensus point to a 35–36°C peak in London on August 13 under building high pressure, strong subsidence warming, prolonged sunshine, and light winds that maximize daytime heating. These conditions, combined with London’s urban heat-island effect, underpin the closely matched implied probabilities of 44% for 36°C and 39.5% for 35°C. Minor differences in cloud timing, boundary-layer mixing, or model spread around the daily maximum create realistic pathways for 37°C or a lower 34°C outcome, while historical August extremes and current amber heat warnings frame the elevated baseline without guaranteeing a specific threshold.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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