Recent weather model consensus from sources like AccuWeather and regional forecasts positions Madrid’s August 3 high near 32–34°C, aligning with the market’s heaviest weighting on those outcomes. Madrid’s continental climate typically delivers peak August highs of 32–33°C under high-pressure subsidence and intense solar heating, though Atlantic troughs or Saharan air intrusions can shift readings by several degrees. The first half of summer 2026 ranked as Spain’s warmest on record with repeated heatwaves, but early August guidance shows moderating conditions without active heat alerts, reducing odds of 35°C+ extremes while supporting the 33°C lead at 46% implied probability. Updated NHC-equivalent regional guidance and ensemble runs in coming days will refine resolution thresholds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月3日马德里气温最高？
8月3日马德里气温最高？
33°C 46%
34°C 25%
32°C 18%
35°C 7%
最新
最新
2026-08-03
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
2%
31°C
3%
32°C
18%
33°C
46%
34°C
25%
35°C
7%
36°C
3%
37°C
1%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
33°C 46%
34°C 25%
32°C 18%
35°C 7%
最新
最新
2026-08-03
29°C or below
$88 交易量
<1%
30°C
$25 交易量
2%
31°C
$569 交易量
3%
32°C
$881 交易量
18%
33°C
$477 交易量
46%
34°C
$437 交易量
25%
35°C
$317 交易量
7%
36°C
$216 交易量
3%
37°C
$40 交易量
1%
38°C
$137 交易量
<1%
39°C or higher
$151 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent weather model consensus from sources like AccuWeather and regional forecasts positions Madrid’s August 3 high near 32–34°C, aligning with the market’s heaviest weighting on those outcomes. Madrid’s continental climate typically delivers peak August highs of 32–33°C under high-pressure subsidence and intense solar heating, though Atlantic troughs or Saharan air intrusions can shift readings by several degrees. The first half of summer 2026 ranked as Spain’s warmest on record with repeated heatwaves, but early August guidance shows moderating conditions without active heat alerts, reducing odds of 35°C+ extremes while supporting the 33°C lead at 46% implied probability. Updated NHC-equivalent regional guidance and ensemble runs in coming days will refine resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
交易量
$3,337结束日期
2026-08-03市场开放时间
Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent weather model consensus from sources like AccuWeather and regional forecasts positions Madrid’s August 3 high near 32–34°C, aligning with the market’s heaviest weighting on those outcomes. Madrid’s continental climate typically delivers peak August highs of 32–33°C under high-pressure subsidence and intense solar heating, though Atlantic troughs or Saharan air intrusions can shift readings by several degrees. The first half of summer 2026 ranked as Spain’s warmest on record with repeated heatwaves, but early August guidance shows moderating conditions without active heat alerts, reducing odds of 35°C+ extremes while supporting the 33°C lead at 46% implied probability. Updated NHC-equivalent regional guidance and ensemble runs in coming days will refine resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$3,337结束日期
2026-08-03市场开放时间
Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ETRecent weather model consensus from sources like AccuWeather and regional forecasts positions Madrid’s August 3 high near 32–34°C, aligning with the market’s heaviest weighting on those outcomes. Madrid’s continental climate typically delivers peak August highs of 32–33°C under high-pressure subsidence and intense solar heating, though Atlantic troughs or Saharan air intrusions can shift readings by several degrees. The first half of summer 2026 ranked as Spain’s warmest on record with repeated heatwaves, but early August guidance shows moderating conditions without active heat alerts, reducing odds of 35°C+ extremes while supporting the 33°C lead at 46% implied probability. Updated NHC-equivalent regional guidance and ensemble runs in coming days will refine resolution thresholds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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