Current meteorological forecasts for Shenzhen converge strongly on a daytime maximum of 35°C for August 16, reflecting typical subtropical monsoon conditions with high humidity and limited cloud cover or precipitation during peak heating hours. Official models from sources including the UK Met Office and timeanddate align with seasonal August averages near 32°C while incorporating recent observational trends that support a modest upward adjustment to this threshold. Trader consensus at near-100% implied probability on the 35°C outcome captures this evidence-based alignment, with skin-in-the-game incentives reinforcing accuracy amid inherent model uncertainty ranges. Realistic challenges include localized measurement variations at official stations, unexpected convective activity, or revisions in real-time data that could shift the recorded high by 1–2°C.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月16日深圳气温最高？
8月16日深圳气温最高？
35°C 100.0%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$80,857 交易量
$80,857 交易量
2026-08-16
27°C or below
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
Yes
36°C
No
37°C or higher
No
35°C 100.0%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$80,857 交易量
$80,857 交易量
2026-08-16
27°C or below
$644 交易量
No
28°C
$836 交易量
No
29°C
$1,762 交易量
No
30°C
$1,655 交易量
No
31°C
$2,872 交易量
No
32°C
$3,667 交易量
No
33°C
$11,425 交易量
No
34°C
$24,132 交易量
No
35°C
$13,737 交易量
Yes
36°C
$13,384 交易量
No
37°C or higher
$6,742 交易量
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current meteorological forecasts for Shenzhen converge strongly on a daytime maximum of 35°C for August 16, reflecting typical subtropical monsoon conditions with high humidity and limited cloud cover or precipitation during peak heating hours. Official models from sources including the UK Met Office and timeanddate align with seasonal August averages near 32°C while incorporating recent observational trends that support a modest upward adjustment to this threshold. Trader consensus at near-100% implied probability on the 35°C outcome captures this evidence-based alignment, with skin-in-the-game incentives reinforcing accuracy amid inherent model uncertainty ranges. Realistic challenges include localized measurement variations at official stations, unexpected convective activity, or revisions in real-time data that could shift the recorded high by 1–2°C.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$80,857结束日期
2026-08-16市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current meteorological forecasts for Shenzhen converge strongly on a daytime maximum of 35°C for August 16, reflecting typical subtropical monsoon conditions with high humidity and limited cloud cover or precipitation during peak heating hours. Official models from sources including the UK Met Office and timeanddate align with seasonal August averages near 32°C while incorporating recent observational trends that support a modest upward adjustment to this threshold. Trader consensus at near-100% implied probability on the 35°C outcome captures this evidence-based alignment, with skin-in-the-game incentives reinforcing accuracy amid inherent model uncertainty ranges. Realistic challenges include localized measurement variations at official stations, unexpected convective activity, or revisions in real-time data that could shift the recorded high by 1–2°C.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$80,857结束日期
2026-08-16市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Current meteorological forecasts for Shenzhen converge strongly on a daytime maximum of 35°C for August 16, reflecting typical subtropical monsoon conditions with high humidity and limited cloud cover or precipitation during peak heating hours. Official models from sources including the UK Met Office and timeanddate align with seasonal August averages near 32°C while incorporating recent observational trends that support a modest upward adjustment to this threshold. Trader consensus at near-100% implied probability on the 35°C outcome captures this evidence-based alignment, with skin-in-the-game incentives reinforcing accuracy amid inherent model uncertainty ranges. Realistic challenges include localized measurement variations at official stations, unexpected convective activity, or revisions in real-time data that could shift the recorded high by 1–2°C.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题