Latest Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts point to partly cloudy skies over Tokyo on August 25 with daytime maxima near 34°C, aligning with the market's leading 32.5% implied probability for that threshold. Model consensus shows modest warming potential from recent 31–34°C readings, tempered by variable cloud cover that can suppress peak solar heating while high humidity and light winds limit overnight cooling. Ensemble spreads highlight genuine uncertainty around 32–35°C outcomes, as small shifts in steering patterns or convective development could tip the daily high. Updated JMA guidance and global model runs expected within 24–48 hours will likely refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月25日东京气温最高？
8月25日东京气温最高？
34°C 33%
33°C 24%
32°C 14%
35°C 14%
最新
最新
2026-08-25
29°C or below
1%
30°C
4%
31°C
4%
32°C
14%
33°C
24%
34°C
33%
35°C
14%
36°C
5%
37°C
3%
38°C
1%
39°C or higher
1%
34°C 33%
33°C 24%
32°C 14%
35°C 14%
最新
最新
2026-08-25
29°C or below
$5 交易量
1%
30°C
$10 交易量
4%
31°C
$49 交易量
4%
32°C
$44 交易量
14%
33°C
$1,090 交易量
24%
34°C
$155 交易量
33%
35°C
$31 交易量
14%
36°C
$102 交易量
5%
37°C
$152 交易量
3%
38°C
$311 交易量
1%
39°C or higher
$117 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts point to partly cloudy skies over Tokyo on August 25 with daytime maxima near 34°C, aligning with the market's leading 32.5% implied probability for that threshold. Model consensus shows modest warming potential from recent 31–34°C readings, tempered by variable cloud cover that can suppress peak solar heating while high humidity and light winds limit overnight cooling. Ensemble spreads highlight genuine uncertainty around 32–35°C outcomes, as small shifts in steering patterns or convective development could tip the daily high. Updated JMA guidance and global model runs expected within 24–48 hours will likely refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$2,066结束日期
2026-08-25市场开放时间
Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts point to partly cloudy skies over Tokyo on August 25 with daytime maxima near 34°C, aligning with the market's leading 32.5% implied probability for that threshold. Model consensus shows modest warming potential from recent 31–34°C readings, tempered by variable cloud cover that can suppress peak solar heating while high humidity and light winds limit overnight cooling. Ensemble spreads highlight genuine uncertainty around 32–35°C outcomes, as small shifts in steering patterns or convective development could tip the daily high. Updated JMA guidance and global model runs expected within 24–48 hours will likely refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$2,066结束日期
2026-08-25市场开放时间
Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ETLatest Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts point to partly cloudy skies over Tokyo on August 25 with daytime maxima near 34°C, aligning with the market's leading 32.5% implied probability for that threshold. Model consensus shows modest warming potential from recent 31–34°C readings, tempered by variable cloud cover that can suppress peak solar heating while high humidity and light winds limit overnight cooling. Ensemble spreads highlight genuine uncertainty around 32–35°C outcomes, as small shifts in steering patterns or convective development could tip the daily high. Updated JMA guidance and global model runs expected within 24–48 hours will likely refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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