**Traders assign the highest probability (56.5%) to fewer than five posts from the official @khamenei_ir account during August 14–21, 2026, with the 5–9 range a distant second at 22.5%.** This reflects the account’s established pattern of infrequent activity focused on major statements, speeches, or official commemorations rather than daily commentary. Following the February–March 2026 death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the succession of Mojtaba Khamenei, the account has continued to issue content under the “martyred leader” framing, but volume has remained low outside periods of acute crisis or formal appointments. Recent verified developments include Mojtaba Khamenei’s August 9 appointment of a new Supreme National Security Council secretary and related official messaging, after which posting rates appear to have normalized. No major diplomatic summits, military escalations, or domestic political deadlines fall inside the resolution window, supporting the market’s expectation of limited output. The account’s activity has historically clustered around high-profile events, and absent fresh catalysts in mid-August 2026, traders view a quiet week as the base case.