Official National Weather Service forecasts and supporting model guidance project an overnight low near 58°F for San Francisco on September 21, driven by a persistent marine layer, southwest winds of 5–15 mph, and mostly cloudy conditions that limit radiative cooling. This places the expected minimum squarely in the 58–59°F range, consistent with the highest market-implied probability. Coastal climatology shows typical September lows in the mid-to-upper 50s, with recent days recording 57–58°F minima under similar onshore flow. Traders appear to weigh these stable atmospheric conditions against minor model spread on exact overnight readings, while lower-probability outcomes like 51°F or below or 70°F+ reflect less likely deviations from the forecast consensus.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于旧金山9月21日最低气温？
旧金山9月21日最低气温？
51华氏度或以下 100%
58-59°F 74%
52-53°F 21%
54-55°F 21%
最新
最新
2026-09-21
51华氏度或以下
100%
52-53°F
21%
54-55°F
21%
56-57°F
21%
58-59°F
54%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67华氏度
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70华氏度或更高
<1%
51华氏度或以下 100%
58-59°F 74%
52-53°F 21%
54-55°F 21%
最新
最新
2026-09-21
51华氏度或以下
$0 交易量
100%
52-53°F
$0 交易量
21%
54-55°F
$0 交易量
21%
56-57°F
$0 交易量
21%
58-59°F
$178 交易量
54%
60-61°F
$5 交易量
<1%
62-63°F
$0 交易量
<1%
64-65°F
$0 交易量
<1%
66-67华氏度
$0 交易量
<1%
68-69°F
$0 交易量
<1%
70华氏度或更高
$20 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service forecasts and supporting model guidance project an overnight low near 58°F for San Francisco on September 21, driven by a persistent marine layer, southwest winds of 5–15 mph, and mostly cloudy conditions that limit radiative cooling. This places the expected minimum squarely in the 58–59°F range, consistent with the highest market-implied probability. Coastal climatology shows typical September lows in the mid-to-upper 50s, with recent days recording 57–58°F minima under similar onshore flow. Traders appear to weigh these stable atmospheric conditions against minor model spread on exact overnight readings, while lower-probability outcomes like 51°F or below or 70°F+ reflect less likely deviations from the forecast consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 19, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
交易量
$203结束日期
2026-09-21市场开放时间
Sep 19, 2026, 7:29 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service forecasts and supporting model guidance project an overnight low near 58°F for San Francisco on September 21, driven by a persistent marine layer, southwest winds of 5–15 mph, and mostly cloudy conditions that limit radiative cooling. This places the expected minimum squarely in the 58–59°F range, consistent with the highest market-implied probability. Coastal climatology shows typical September lows in the mid-to-upper 50s, with recent days recording 57–58°F minima under similar onshore flow. Traders appear to weigh these stable atmospheric conditions against minor model spread on exact overnight readings, while lower-probability outcomes like 51°F or below or 70°F+ reflect less likely deviations from the forecast consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$203结束日期
2026-09-21市场开放时间
Sep 19, 2026, 7:29 AM ETOfficial National Weather Service forecasts and supporting model guidance project an overnight low near 58°F for San Francisco on September 21, driven by a persistent marine layer, southwest winds of 5–15 mph, and mostly cloudy conditions that limit radiative cooling. This places the expected minimum squarely in the 58–59°F range, consistent with the highest market-implied probability. Coastal climatology shows typical September lows in the mid-to-upper 50s, with recent days recording 57–58°F minima under similar onshore flow. Traders appear to weigh these stable atmospheric conditions against minor model spread on exact overnight readings, while lower-probability outcomes like 51°F or below or 70°F+ reflect less likely deviations from the forecast consensus.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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