Current Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and climatological data indicate a minimum temperature near 24°C for Tokyo on August 15, consistent with typical August overnight lows of 23–25°C amid prevailing warm, humid conditions and no major cooling systems. This drives the overwhelming market-implied probability for 24°C, reflecting trader assessment of model consensus and historical patterns where urban heat and seasonal norms rarely produce sharper drops. Realistic deviations would require an unforecasted frontal passage or localized heavy precipitation, though current observations show stable atmospheric conditions unlikely to shift the outcome.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月15日东京气温最低？
8月15日东京气温最低？
24°C 100.0%
19°C或以下 <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$10,391 交易量
$10,391 交易量
2026-08-15
19°C或以下
否
20°C
否
21°C
否
22°C
否
23°C
否
24°C
是
25°C
否
26°C
否
27°C
否
28°C
否
29°C或更高
否
24°C 100.0%
19°C或以下 <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$10,391 交易量
$10,391 交易量
2026-08-15
19°C或以下
$192 交易量
否
20°C
$204 交易量
否
21°C
$874 交易量
否
22°C
$1,102 交易量
否
23°C
$1,838 交易量
否
24°C
$2,084 交易量
是
25°C
$3,240 交易量
否
26°C
$303 交易量
否
27°C
$230 交易量
否
28°C
$114 交易量
否
29°C或更高
$209 交易量
否
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and climatological data indicate a minimum temperature near 24°C for Tokyo on August 15, consistent with typical August overnight lows of 23–25°C amid prevailing warm, humid conditions and no major cooling systems. This drives the overwhelming market-implied probability for 24°C, reflecting trader assessment of model consensus and historical patterns where urban heat and seasonal norms rarely produce sharper drops. Realistic deviations would require an unforecasted frontal passage or localized heavy precipitation, though current observations show stable atmospheric conditions unlikely to shift the outcome.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 13, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
交易量
$10,391结束日期
2026-08-15市场开放时间
Aug 13, 2026, 12:28 AM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and climatological data indicate a minimum temperature near 24°C for Tokyo on August 15, consistent with typical August overnight lows of 23–25°C amid prevailing warm, humid conditions and no major cooling systems. This drives the overwhelming market-implied probability for 24°C, reflecting trader assessment of model consensus and historical patterns where urban heat and seasonal norms rarely produce sharper drops. Realistic deviations would require an unforecasted frontal passage or localized heavy precipitation, though current observations show stable atmospheric conditions unlikely to shift the outcome.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$10,391结束日期
2026-08-15市场开放时间
Aug 13, 2026, 12:28 AM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
Current Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and climatological data indicate a minimum temperature near 24°C for Tokyo on August 15, consistent with typical August overnight lows of 23–25°C amid prevailing warm, humid conditions and no major cooling systems. This drives the overwhelming market-implied probability for 24°C, reflecting trader assessment of model consensus and historical patterns where urban heat and seasonal norms rarely produce sharper drops. Realistic deviations would require an unforecasted frontal passage or localized heavy precipitation, though current observations show stable atmospheric conditions unlikely to shift the outcome.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题