Recent Météo-France and ensemble model guidance indicate a moderating airmass over Paris following the mid-August heat wave that produced 36–38°C peaks around August 13–14. Latest runs converge on a daytime maximum of 27–29°C on the 17th under partly cloudy skies with light southerly flow and no significant advection of warmer air. This consensus places 28–29°C squarely in the favored range, consistent with the market-implied probabilities of 32.5% and 54.5%. Minor spread in guidance (some members reaching 30–31°C) accounts for the lower but non-zero odds on those outcomes. Traders are closely watching the next 00Z and 12Z model cycles plus any updated Météo-France briefing for shifts in boundary-layer mixing or cloud cover that could alter the final observed high before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月17日巴黎气温最高？
8月17日巴黎气温最高？
29°C 55%
28°C 33%
30°C 10%
27°C 5%
最新
$11,399 交易量
最新
$11,399 交易量
2026-08-17
24°C或以下
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
5%
28°C
33%
29°C
55%
30°C
10%
31°C
2%
32°C
1%
33°C
<1%
34°C或更高
<1%
29°C 55%
28°C 33%
30°C 10%
27°C 5%
最新
$11,399 交易量
最新
$11,399 交易量
2026-08-17
24°C或以下
$334 交易量
<1%
25°C
$519 交易量
<1%
26°C
$467 交易量
1%
27°C
$1,145 交易量
5%
28°C
$1,709 交易量
33%
29°C
$3,206 交易量
55%
30°C
$911 交易量
10%
31°C
$699 交易量
2%
32°C
$1,045 交易量
1%
33°C
$552 交易量
<1%
34°C或更高
$813 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Météo-France and ensemble model guidance indicate a moderating airmass over Paris following the mid-August heat wave that produced 36–38°C peaks around August 13–14. Latest runs converge on a daytime maximum of 27–29°C on the 17th under partly cloudy skies with light southerly flow and no significant advection of warmer air. This consensus places 28–29°C squarely in the favored range, consistent with the market-implied probabilities of 32.5% and 54.5%. Minor spread in guidance (some members reaching 30–31°C) accounts for the lower but non-zero odds on those outcomes. Traders are closely watching the next 00Z and 12Z model cycles plus any updated Météo-France briefing for shifts in boundary-layer mixing or cloud cover that could alter the final observed high before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 15, 2026, 4:04 PM ET
交易量
$11,399结束日期
2026-08-17市场开放时间
Aug 15, 2026, 4:04 PM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Météo-France and ensemble model guidance indicate a moderating airmass over Paris following the mid-August heat wave that produced 36–38°C peaks around August 13–14. Latest runs converge on a daytime maximum of 27–29°C on the 17th under partly cloudy skies with light southerly flow and no significant advection of warmer air. This consensus places 28–29°C squarely in the favored range, consistent with the market-implied probabilities of 32.5% and 54.5%. Minor spread in guidance (some members reaching 30–31°C) accounts for the lower but non-zero odds on those outcomes. Traders are closely watching the next 00Z and 12Z model cycles plus any updated Météo-France briefing for shifts in boundary-layer mixing or cloud cover that could alter the final observed high before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$11,399结束日期
2026-08-17市场开放时间
Aug 15, 2026, 4:04 PM ETRecent Météo-France and ensemble model guidance indicate a moderating airmass over Paris following the mid-August heat wave that produced 36–38°C peaks around August 13–14. Latest runs converge on a daytime maximum of 27–29°C on the 17th under partly cloudy skies with light southerly flow and no significant advection of warmer air. This consensus places 28–29°C squarely in the favored range, consistent with the market-implied probabilities of 32.5% and 54.5%. Minor spread in guidance (some members reaching 30–31°C) accounts for the lower but non-zero odds on those outcomes. Traders are closely watching the next 00Z and 12Z model cycles plus any updated Météo-France briefing for shifts in boundary-layer mixing or cloud cover that could alter the final observed high before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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