Mike Bouchard leads trader consensus at 62.5% implied probability in the MI-10 Republican primary for the open seat vacated by Rep. John James's gubernatorial bid, driven by his strong Q1 fundraising with over $847,000 cash on hand, name recognition as son of Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard, early polling advantages like a February internal survey showing a 29-11% edge over Robert Lulgjuraj, and endorsements from figures including Macomb County Prosecutor Pete Lucido and former Michigan GOP Chair Bobby Schostak. Lulgjuraj holds 31.5% on his prosecutor background, Sterling Heights roots, deep local endorsements from state reps and county officials, and $822,000 cash on hand, bolstered by a May 15 state review clearing his nominating petitions despite forgery challenges, ensuring a competitive matchup ahead of the August 4 primary. Lower-tier candidates trail amid weaker resources.