Incumbent Rep. Glenn Thompson (R) commands trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability to win Pennsylvania's 15th Congressional District, driven by the district's strong R+19 Cook Partisan Voter Index—ranking among the most Republican nationally—and Thompson's nine prior terms with consistent 70%+ general election margins. Recent first-quarter fundraising reports show Thompson raising over $360,000, dwarfing challenger Ray Bilger (D), a military veteran who announced in February with limited resources. No polling indicates competitiveness, and ratings remain Solid Republican across forecasters. With primaries four days away on May 19, an upset there or late scandal, health issue, or national Democratic wave could challenge this, though structural barriers make shifts unlikely before the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$13,384 交易量
$13,384 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
94%
民主党
7%
$13,384 交易量
$13,384 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$5,359 交易量
94%
民主党
$8,025 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Glenn Thompson (R) commands trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability to win Pennsylvania's 15th Congressional District, driven by the district's strong R+19 Cook Partisan Voter Index—ranking among the most Republican nationally—and Thompson's nine prior terms with consistent 70%+ general election margins. Recent first-quarter fundraising reports show Thompson raising over $360,000, dwarfing challenger Ray Bilger (D), a military veteran who announced in February with limited resources. No polling indicates competitiveness, and ratings remain Solid Republican across forecasters. With primaries four days away on May 19, an upset there or late scandal, health issue, or national Democratic wave could challenge this, though structural barriers make shifts unlikely before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
交易量
$13,384结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Glenn Thompson (R) commands trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability to win Pennsylvania's 15th Congressional District, driven by the district's strong R+19 Cook Partisan Voter Index—ranking among the most Republican nationally—and Thompson's nine prior terms with consistent 70%+ general election margins. Recent first-quarter fundraising reports show Thompson raising over $360,000, dwarfing challenger Ray Bilger (D), a military veteran who announced in February with limited resources. No polling indicates competitiveness, and ratings remain Solid Republican across forecasters. With primaries four days away on May 19, an upset there or late scandal, health issue, or national Democratic wave could challenge this, though structural barriers make shifts unlikely before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$13,384结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Glenn Thompson (R) commands trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability to win Pennsylvania's 15th Congressional District, driven by the district's strong R+19 Cook Partisan Voter Index—ranking among the most Republican nationally—and Thompson's nine prior terms with consistent 70%+ general election margins. Recent first-quarter fundraising reports show Thompson raising over $360,000, dwarfing challenger Ray Bilger (D), a military veteran who announced in February with limited resources. No polling indicates competitiveness, and ratings remain Solid Republican across forecasters. With primaries four days away on May 19, an upset there or late scandal, health issue, or national Democratic wave could challenge this, though structural barriers make shifts unlikely before the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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