Traders see closely matched probabilities across Seoul’s August precipitation ranges because roughly half the month has passed amid ongoing uncertainty over remaining rainfall. The East Asian summer monsoon and atmospheric instability continue to drive localized convective showers, though a dominant high-pressure system has limited typhoon impacts so far and favored a heatwave. Historical averages range from 288–348 mm, with official KMA guidance pointing to totals near or below normal for the full month. Recent model runs and short-term forecasts show elevated rain chances through mid-August followed by mostly drier conditions, yet divergent ensemble outputs and the potential for sudden heavy downpours keep outcomes finely balanced between sub-150 mm and 400–500 mm scenarios.