Vladimir Putin’s current six-year term, secured in the 2024 election, runs until 2030, while 2020 constitutional amendments reset term limits to permit two additional terms through 2036. Traders see no near-term political or institutional pressure that would force his removal by the end of 2026, as he continues to direct military operations in Ukraine, set national priorities, and maintain unchallenged authority over security services and the legislature. Recent public statements on potential negotiations and domestic strategy underscore his active leadership without signals of voluntary exit or elite challenge. Absent sudden health developments or major battlefield reversals, the market reflects broad consensus that Putin will remain president well beyond the queried date.