The October 5, 2026 Quebec provincial election in Saint-François features a competitive multi-party contest where provincial trends and local candidate profiles keep implied probabilities tightly clustered. Incumbent Geneviève Hébert of the Coalition Avenir Québec faces Parti Québécois candidate Sylvie Tanguay, Liberal Jacqueline Belleau, and Québec solidaire's Mia Fréchette, with nominations closing September 17 on a revised electoral map. Recent 338Canada and Qc125 projections show the PQ leading locally around 29-37% amid broader voter fatigue with the CAQ government over healthcare access and living costs, while the incumbent's prior 42% result in 2022 provides residual support. This balance of party momentum, regional dynamics in Estrie, and undecided voters sustains close trader assessments across the main contenders, with limited late developments yet to shift the field.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Geneviève Hébert 40%
Mia Fréchette 40%
Jacqueline Belleau 32%
Sylvie Tanguay 28%
Geneviève Hébert
40%
Mia Fréchette
40%
Jacqueline Belleau
32%
Sylvie Tanguay
28%
Geneviève Hébert 40%
Mia Fréchette 40%
Jacqueline Belleau 32%
Sylvie Tanguay 28%
Geneviève Hébert
40%
Mia Fréchette
40%
Jacqueline Belleau
32%
Sylvie Tanguay
28%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Saint-François Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.
If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
市场开放时间： Aug 31, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Saint-François Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.
If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
The October 5, 2026 Quebec provincial election in Saint-François features a competitive multi-party contest where provincial trends and local candidate profiles keep implied probabilities tightly clustered. Incumbent Geneviève Hébert of the Coalition Avenir Québec faces Parti Québécois candidate Sylvie Tanguay, Liberal Jacqueline Belleau, and Québec solidaire's Mia Fréchette, with nominations closing September 17 on a revised electoral map. Recent 338Canada and Qc125 projections show the PQ leading locally around 29-37% amid broader voter fatigue with the CAQ government over healthcare access and living costs, while the incumbent's prior 42% result in 2022 provides residual support. This balance of party momentum, regional dynamics in Estrie, and undecided voters sustains close trader assessments across the main contenders, with limited late developments yet to shift the field.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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