The US has applied sustained economic sanctions, an oil embargo, and targeted measures against Cuban military-linked entities and officials through September 2026, producing severe energy shortages and economic strain on the island without triggering direct armed confrontation. Pentagon planning has examined military options and US forces have conducted increased surveillance and Caribbean deployments, yet official actions emphasize coercive diplomacy and concessions over kinetic operations. Cuban authorities have faced these pressures through limited economic reforms and public statements rejecting negotiations on US terms while maintaining contacts. This pattern of calibrated pressure, absent any verified cross-border military incident, underpins the market's strong consensus against a clash materializing by year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
16% 概率
$250,255 交易量
$250,255 交易量
2026-12-31
是
16% 概率
$250,255 交易量
$250,255 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The US has applied sustained economic sanctions, an oil embargo, and targeted measures against Cuban military-linked entities and officials through September 2026, producing severe energy shortages and economic strain on the island without triggering direct armed confrontation. Pentagon planning has examined military options and US forces have conducted increased surveillance and Caribbean deployments, yet official actions emphasize coercive diplomacy and concessions over kinetic operations. Cuban authorities have faced these pressures through limited economic reforms and public statements rejecting negotiations on US terms while maintaining contacts. This pattern of calibrated pressure, absent any verified cross-border military incident, underpins the market's strong consensus against a clash materializing by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
交易量
$250,255结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The US has applied sustained economic sanctions, an oil embargo, and targeted measures against Cuban military-linked entities and officials through September 2026, producing severe energy shortages and economic strain on the island without triggering direct armed confrontation. Pentagon planning has examined military options and US forces have conducted increased surveillance and Caribbean deployments, yet official actions emphasize coercive diplomacy and concessions over kinetic operations. Cuban authorities have faced these pressures through limited economic reforms and public statements rejecting negotiations on US terms while maintaining contacts. This pattern of calibrated pressure, absent any verified cross-border military incident, underpins the market's strong consensus against a clash materializing by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$250,255结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ETThe US has applied sustained economic sanctions, an oil embargo, and targeted measures against Cuban military-linked entities and officials through September 2026, producing severe energy shortages and economic strain on the island without triggering direct armed confrontation. Pentagon planning has examined military options and US forces have conducted increased surveillance and Caribbean deployments, yet official actions emphasize coercive diplomacy and concessions over kinetic operations. Cuban authorities have faced these pressures through limited economic reforms and public statements rejecting negotiations on US terms while maintaining contacts. This pattern of calibrated pressure, absent any verified cross-border military incident, underpins the market's strong consensus against a clash materializing by year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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