Recent U.S. official statements emphasize that despite President Trump's public references to Cuba as a potential next focus after Middle East operations, military planners are not preparing for imminent action against the island. Instead, the administration has prioritized expanded economic sanctions, executive orders targeting Cuban officials, and a surge in surveillance flights within miles of Cuban airspace as tools to apply pressure without direct confrontation. Cuban authorities have rejected the threats as escalatory while managing internal energy and economic strains. These factors underpin the current trader consensus, reflected in the 58% implied probability for no military clash in 2026, though the situation remains subject to rapid shifts from policy announcements or diplomatic developments.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$109,439 交易量
$109,439 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$109,439 交易量
$109,439 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. official statements emphasize that despite President Trump's public references to Cuba as a potential next focus after Middle East operations, military planners are not preparing for imminent action against the island. Instead, the administration has prioritized expanded economic sanctions, executive orders targeting Cuban officials, and a surge in surveillance flights within miles of Cuban airspace as tools to apply pressure without direct confrontation. Cuban authorities have rejected the threats as escalatory while managing internal energy and economic strains. These factors underpin the current trader consensus, reflected in the 58% implied probability for no military clash in 2026, though the situation remains subject to rapid shifts from policy announcements or diplomatic developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
交易量
$109,439结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. official statements emphasize that despite President Trump's public references to Cuba as a potential next focus after Middle East operations, military planners are not preparing for imminent action against the island. Instead, the administration has prioritized expanded economic sanctions, executive orders targeting Cuban officials, and a surge in surveillance flights within miles of Cuban airspace as tools to apply pressure without direct confrontation. Cuban authorities have rejected the threats as escalatory while managing internal energy and economic strains. These factors underpin the current trader consensus, reflected in the 58% implied probability for no military clash in 2026, though the situation remains subject to rapid shifts from policy announcements or diplomatic developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$109,439结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. official statements emphasize that despite President Trump's public references to Cuba as a potential next focus after Middle East operations, military planners are not preparing for imminent action against the island. Instead, the administration has prioritized expanded economic sanctions, executive orders targeting Cuban officials, and a surge in surveillance flights within miles of Cuban airspace as tools to apply pressure without direct confrontation. Cuban authorities have rejected the threats as escalatory while managing internal energy and economic strains. These factors underpin the current trader consensus, reflected in the 58% implied probability for no military clash in 2026, though the situation remains subject to rapid shifts from policy announcements or diplomatic developments.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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