Recent Israeli polling averages project a fragmented Knesset outcome ahead of the October 27 election, with Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar and Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud trading narrow leads around 22–25 seats each while neither right-religious nor center-left Zionist bloc consistently reaches the 61-seat majority needed to govern. The 3.25% electoral threshold remains decisive for smaller lists such as Ofer Winter’s Amcha Yisrael, the Reservists-Economic party, Religious Zionism, and Arab alliances including the Joint List and Ra’am, all of which hover near or above the bar in recent surveys. Surplus-vote agreements finalized in mid-September and pending Central Elections Committee rulings on disqualification petitions—expected to reach the Supreme Court—could shift final seat allocations by a few mandates. Security concerns tied to the post-October 7 period continue to dominate voter priorities, sustaining high uncertainty over which parties ultimately clear the threshold and enter the 26th Knesset.