Traders assign a 98.9% probability that China will not launch an invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of large-scale amphibious mobilization, logistics buildup, or command shifts required for such an operation in the narrow remaining window. U.S. intelligence assessments from early 2026 indicate Chinese leaders lack a fixed unification timeline and continue to favor coercive gray-zone tactics, including routine PLA drills and maritime pressure, over kinetic escalation. Taiwan’s recent Han Kuang exercises tested reservist mobilization, drone integration, and supply resilience without prompting major Chinese responses. Structural barriers such as expected intervention costs and ongoing PLA readiness gaps reinforce this consensus, though late miscalculations during cross-strait exercises or abrupt diplomatic shifts could still alter trajectories before the resolution date.