Recent Met Office provisional data through 10 August show the UK's meteorological summer mean temperature at 16.48°C, 1.88°C above the 1991-2020 average and well ahead of the 2025 record pace. Multiple heatwaves have produced unprecedented daily maxima and minima, including the first year on record exceeding 35°C across May, June, and July, alongside record dryness and sunshine hours. Only near-average or slightly cooler conditions are now required through the remainder of August to establish a new national benchmark dating to 1884. These verified observations and persistent warm anomalies underpin trader consensus at 85.5% implied probability for a new record.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于86% 概率
最新
最新
2026-10-01
86% 概率
最新
最新
2026-10-01
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Recent Met Office provisional data through 10 August show the UK's meteorological summer mean temperature at 16.48°C, 1.88°C above the 1991-2020 average and well ahead of the 2025 record pace. Multiple heatwaves have produced unprecedented daily maxima and minima, including the first year on record exceeding 35°C across May, June, and July, alongside record dryness and sunshine hours. Only near-average or slightly cooler conditions are now required through the remainder of August to establish a new national benchmark dating to 1884. These verified observations and persistent warm anomalies underpin trader consensus at 85.5% implied probability for a new record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Aug 11, 2026, 10:59 AM ET
交易量
$331结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Aug 11, 2026, 10:59 AM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Recent Met Office provisional data through 10 August show the UK's meteorological summer mean temperature at 16.48°C, 1.88°C above the 1991-2020 average and well ahead of the 2025 record pace. Multiple heatwaves have produced unprecedented daily maxima and minima, including the first year on record exceeding 35°C across May, June, and July, alongside record dryness and sunshine hours. Only near-average or slightly cooler conditions are now required through the remainder of August to establish a new national benchmark dating to 1884. These verified observations and persistent warm anomalies underpin trader consensus at 85.5% implied probability for a new record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$331结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Aug 11, 2026, 10:59 AM ETRecent Met Office provisional data through 10 August show the UK's meteorological summer mean temperature at 16.48°C, 1.88°C above the 1991-2020 average and well ahead of the 2025 record pace. Multiple heatwaves have produced unprecedented daily maxima and minima, including the first year on record exceeding 35°C across May, June, and July, alongside record dryness and sunshine hours. Only near-average or slightly cooler conditions are now required through the remainder of August to establish a new national benchmark dating to 1884. These verified observations and persistent warm anomalies underpin trader consensus at 85.5% implied probability for a new record.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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