The U.S. special operation in Venezuela on January 3, 2026, which captured Nicolás Maduro through targeted strikes and a brief raid rather than sustained occupation or regime change by force, has shaped trader views without triggering broader invasions. Subsequent U.S. counter-cartel actions, including joint operations in Ecuador and Caribbean strikes under initiatives like Operation Southern Spear, remain focused on narcotics and designated groups rather than territorial incursions against sovereign states. No comparable military interventions have materialized in Cuba, Mexico, or elsewhere through mid-2026, with diplomatic pressures and intelligence support prevailing over escalation. This pattern of limited, law-enforcement-framed engagements aligns with the 88.5% implied probability on no invasion occurring for the balance of the year.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
12% 概率
$269,883 交易量
$269,883 交易量
2026-12-30
是
12% 概率
$269,883 交易量
$269,883 交易量
2026-12-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.The U.S. special operation in Venezuela on January 3, 2026, which captured Nicolás Maduro through targeted strikes and a brief raid rather than sustained occupation or regime change by force, has shaped trader views without triggering broader invasions. Subsequent U.S. counter-cartel actions, including joint operations in Ecuador and Caribbean strikes under initiatives like Operation Southern Spear, remain focused on narcotics and designated groups rather than territorial incursions against sovereign states. No comparable military interventions have materialized in Cuba, Mexico, or elsewhere through mid-2026, with diplomatic pressures and intelligence support prevailing over escalation. This pattern of limited, law-enforcement-framed engagements aligns with the 88.5% implied probability on no invasion occurring for the balance of the year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
市场开放时间： Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ET
交易量
$269,883结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.The U.S. special operation in Venezuela on January 3, 2026, which captured Nicolás Maduro through targeted strikes and a brief raid rather than sustained occupation or regime change by force, has shaped trader views without triggering broader invasions. Subsequent U.S. counter-cartel actions, including joint operations in Ecuador and Caribbean strikes under initiatives like Operation Southern Spear, remain focused on narcotics and designated groups rather than territorial incursions against sovereign states. No comparable military interventions have materialized in Cuba, Mexico, or elsewhere through mid-2026, with diplomatic pressures and intelligence support prevailing over escalation. This pattern of limited, law-enforcement-framed engagements aligns with the 88.5% implied probability on no invasion occurring for the balance of the year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
交易量
$269,883结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. special operation in Venezuela on January 3, 2026, which captured Nicolás Maduro through targeted strikes and a brief raid rather than sustained occupation or regime change by force, has shaped trader views without triggering broader invasions. Subsequent U.S. counter-cartel actions, including joint operations in Ecuador and Caribbean strikes under initiatives like Operation Southern Spear, remain focused on narcotics and designated groups rather than territorial incursions against sovereign states. No comparable military interventions have materialized in Cuba, Mexico, or elsewhere through mid-2026, with diplomatic pressures and intelligence support prevailing over escalation. This pattern of limited, law-enforcement-framed engagements aligns with the 88.5% implied probability on no invasion occurring for the balance of the year.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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