A targeted U.S. military operation in Venezuela on January 3, 2026, captured Nicolás Maduro through a brief special operations raid and airstrikes without establishing territorial control or launching sustained ground combat, aligning with the administration's focus on counter-narcotics and border security rather than occupation. Subsequent actions have stayed limited to maritime interdictions, joint strikes against cartels in Ecuador and Colombia, and sanctions on Cuba, with official statements emphasizing drug interdiction and external influence rather than regime change through invasion. As of mid-May 2026, with no escalation toward prolonged military presence in any Latin American nation and half the year elapsed, trader consensus on a low probability of full-scale invasion reflects the absence of historical preconditions like large-scale troop deployments or congressional authorization for occupation.