Traders assign 96.3% probability to no U.S. invasion of Greenland in 2026 because the Trump administration explicitly ruled out military force in January statements at Davos, shifting emphasis to negotiations, tariffs, and potential purchase despite earlier rhetoric about national security needs and Arctic access. NATO alliance constraints, Danish and Greenlandic opposition, and the lack of Pentagon mobilization or operational planning reinforce this consensus, consistent with historical precedent against attacking a treaty ally. Remaining uncertainty stems from possible late-year policy reversals or unforeseen escalations tied to broader hemispheric strategy, though no such triggers have materialized by mid-August.