US trader consensus prices a US invasion of Greenland at just 6.5% likelihood for 2026, reflecting the Trump administration's pivot from early-year rhetoric to diplomatic negotiations for expanded military access. In January 2026, White House discussions of "all options" including force and tariff threats against Denmark—a NATO ally—sparked tensions, but Greenland officials reiterated it is "not for sale," prompting allied military reinforcements and legal rebukes over international law violations. By March-May, focus shifted to talks for three new US bases in southern Greenland, with recent reports on May 13 confirming "closely guarded" progress described as "optimistic." Absent mobilization or escalation signals, traders see insurmountable diplomatic, alliance, and logistical barriers to outright invasion before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$1,358,464 交易量
$1,358,464 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$1,358,464 交易量
$1,358,464 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
US trader consensus prices a US invasion of Greenland at just 6.5% likelihood for 2026, reflecting the Trump administration's pivot from early-year rhetoric to diplomatic negotiations for expanded military access. In January 2026, White House discussions of "all options" including force and tariff threats against Denmark—a NATO ally—sparked tensions, but Greenland officials reiterated it is "not for sale," prompting allied military reinforcements and legal rebukes over international law violations. By March-May, focus shifted to talks for three new US bases in southern Greenland, with recent reports on May 13 confirming "closely guarded" progress described as "optimistic." Absent mobilization or escalation signals, traders see insurmountable diplomatic, alliance, and logistical barriers to outright invasion before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jan 5, 2026, 2:12 PM ET
交易量
$1,358,464结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 5, 2026, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
US trader consensus prices a US invasion of Greenland at just 6.5% likelihood for 2026, reflecting the Trump administration's pivot from early-year rhetoric to diplomatic negotiations for expanded military access. In January 2026, White House discussions of "all options" including force and tariff threats against Denmark—a NATO ally—sparked tensions, but Greenland officials reiterated it is "not for sale," prompting allied military reinforcements and legal rebukes over international law violations. By March-May, focus shifted to talks for three new US bases in southern Greenland, with recent reports on May 13 confirming "closely guarded" progress described as "optimistic." Absent mobilization or escalation signals, traders see insurmountable diplomatic, alliance, and logistical barriers to outright invasion before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,358,464结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 5, 2026, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US trader consensus prices a US invasion of Greenland at just 6.5% likelihood for 2026, reflecting the Trump administration's pivot from early-year rhetoric to diplomatic negotiations for expanded military access. In January 2026, White House discussions of "all options" including force and tariff threats against Denmark—a NATO ally—sparked tensions, but Greenland officials reiterated it is "not for sale," prompting allied military reinforcements and legal rebukes over international law violations. By March-May, focus shifted to talks for three new US bases in southern Greenland, with recent reports on May 13 confirming "closely guarded" progress described as "optimistic." Absent mobilization or escalation signals, traders see insurmountable diplomatic, alliance, and logistical barriers to outright invasion before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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