Traders assign a 97.7% probability to Venezuela remaining outside U.S. statehood because no formal annexation process exists and Venezuelan interim leadership has repeatedly rejected the concept on sovereignty grounds. U.S. constitutional requirements for congressional approval and presidential signature, combined with the need for Venezuelan consent through its own institutions, create prohibitive barriers absent any pending legislation or bilateral negotiations. Recent developments center on U.S.-Venezuelan cooperation over oil investment and diplomatic ties following the January 2026 leadership transition, without advancing territorial integration. Only extraordinary late-cycle shifts, such as unforeseen bilateral treaties or domestic referendums in both nations before the December 31, 2026 resolution date, could alter the current consensus reflected in market pricing.